Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (43194)	12/26/1997 7:07:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 186894

Pancho Villa - Re: "...what is your opinion on the likelihood INTC may see $65" This will depend on Intel's Q497 earnings report and subsequent "guidance". The obvious applies here - missing their "estimates" by more than 3 or 4% will signal to the analyst community that Intel is headed for immediate bankruptcy, that every computer sold from here to eternity will now be priced at less than $999, not including a 25 cent mail in coupon from AMD/Intel. On the other hand, if Intel hits their estimate, the analyst community will report that Intel's ability to exceed forecasts has evaporated and that Intel is heading for immediate bankruptcy. Now, on the off-chance that Intel EXCEEDS their forecast, the analyst community will attribute this to a one-time event due to a temporary yield glitch at AMD (which has subsequently been corrected) and that Intel's sales will henceforth nosedive in the face of REAL competition from AMD and Intel will be headed for immedaite bankruptcy. If Intel says that S.E. Asia may cause some uncertainty in the near future, analysts will attribute that to mean that ALL of Intel's CPUs are sold in S.E. Asia, that sales will subsequently be headed to near zero, and that Intel will be headed for immediate bankruptcy. On the other hand, if Intel states that S.E. Asia doesn't appear to be a significant problem, analysts will accuse Intel of a concerted cover-up, attrubute Intel to be overly dependent on the higher-priced non-existant business PC sales, re-iterate that all PCs will sell for less than $999 and that Intel has no future and that the $1+ Billion dollars they earn is irrelevant since "AMD's losses in Q497 will probably be less than anticipated and AMD is on track to significantly increase market share at the expense of Intel in 1998 ". So, the likelihood of Intel's stock hitting $65 is quite good, no matter what happens in the next few weeks. As for shorting stocks, the ones that I have had good luck with are the one-product biotech companies whose entire future is based on the success or failure of one drug that must wind its way through the FDA, etc. Cephalon and Amylin are two I have good luck with - going long and SHORT. Paul