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To: Ian@SI who wrote (4146)	12/25/1997 9:01:00 PM
From: Peter J. Diaz de Leon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Interesting article at Forbes. forbes.com Peter

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4146)	12/25/1997 10:07:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, FYI relative to the Zeev question, Taiwan DRAM Makers Seek Share (12/24/97; 10:10 a.m. EST) By Mark LaPedus, Electronic Buyers' News Can Taiwan's fearless DRAM vendors take market share away from their reeling rivals in Japan and South Korea next year? Although it's unlikely that Taiwan's DRAM makers will surpass their Asian competitors in the short term, the island's companies are poised to grab some market share in 1998 and beyond, according to Donald Floyd, an analyst with ING Barings Taiwan, in Taipei. ''Taiwan's DRAM makers will increase their worldwide market share next year, but it won't be that much,'' Floyd said. ''Taiwan's DRAM companies are simply coming from a much smaller base" compared with Japanese and Korean suppliers. For the most part, Taiwan has been a minor player in DRAMs. In total, the island had a mere 5.7 percent share of the worldwide DRAM business in 1996, according to Floyd. In 1998, however, Taiwan could increase its worldwide market share in the DRAM business by more than 50 percent, to perhaps 10 percent in 1998, he added. Still, there are some questions surrounding local DRAM makers. Faced with pricing pressures and losses, some Taiwan DRAM makers are shifting some of their fab capacities over to the highly profitable IC<Picture> foundry business. Some Taiwan DRAM companies are also quietly cutting back a small percentage of their total capital expenditures for next year, according to sources. And a few other local DRAM makers could even exit the business next year or beyond -- if product prices remain depressed, some analysts said they speculated. It also doesn't appear that South Korean DRAM makers are willing to give up any market share despite the poor conditions in the global memory business. As South Korea's economic turmoil deepens, the nation's DRAM makers appear to be exporting their way out of trouble, analysts said. That's not stopping Taiwan DRAM makers, including the island's three major merchant suppliers -- Mosel-Vitelic, Nan Ya Technology, and Vanguard International Semiconductor. For example, Vanguard said it plans to double its 16-megabit DRAM production next year, to 12 million to 14 million units per month by mid-1998, from 7 million units per month now, according to Paul Chien, vice president of sales and marketing for the Hsinchu-based memory start-up. Vanguard's projected 16-megabit production rates in 1998 would surpass the current output of several Japanese DRAM makers for the first time ever. But Vanguard would still trail South Korean suppliers, each of which are making up to 20 million 16-megabit DRAMs per month at the present time. Like Vanguard, Taoyuan-based Nan Ya Technology will more than double its production of 16-megabit DRAM next year, to about 7 million units per month in 1998, from 2 million to 3 million units per month now, the company said. Other Taiwan DRAM makers are focusing on selling 64-megabit memories, including Mosel-Vitelic and Winbond Electronics. Nonetheless, there's several ominous signs for all DRAM makers. Prices for a 16-megabit DRAM on the spot market have recently fallen to about $2. Prices for a 64-megabit DRAM in the spot market in Taiwan have fallen by more than half this year, to as low as $15 in recent weeks, Floyd said.