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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (8886)	12/25/1997 10:17:00 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

Pancho, I just took a very brief look at PCTY's 1996 10-K, and their 1997 3rd quarter 10-Q. Take a look at this: 3rd quarter 4th quarter 4th quarter sales sales earnings 1995 3,051,000 8,625,000 1,177,000 1996 7,507,000 20,736,000 3,077,000 1997 25,762,000 ? ? If this company has the same 4th quarter percentage increase over the 3rd quarter this year, that they had last year, they'll end up with 4th quarter sales of 70 million, and earnings of 10.5 million, which would be 1.28/share. I may be missing something -- as I said, I only looked at it for a few minutes, but it seems that 0.81/share is certainly feasible. If they earn close to $1.00/share for the year, and are growing earnings and sales at that rate, they may deserve a higher P/E than most retail stores, and an even higher stock price. I wouldn't go long on the company, because I don't like seasonal businesses -- especially ones that only have one good quarter a year. But I also think there must be better shorts out there, such as YHOO, AOL, BVF, CDRD. Good luck, - Charles