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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (8887)	12/25/1997 10:35:00 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Does anyone follow Iridium? They have launched 46 satellites this year, which is 2/3 of their network. They are planning to start up their satellite telephone service in the Fall of 1998. Estimates are that the phones will cost $3,000, and airtime will bill out at $3 a minute. Are there enough rich people who need global coverage badly enough to cough up that much money? Or is IRIDF another good short?

To: Ploni who wrote (8887)	12/26/1997 5:54:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

Charles RE: PCTY >>If this company has the same 4th quarter percentage increase over the 3rd quarter this year, that they had last year, they'll end up with 4th quarter sales of 70 million, and earnings of 10.5 million, which would be 1.28/share. << I guess one thing worth adding to the numbers is the Q3 profits total and per share, and consider the heavy store opening/franchise purchase activity the outlook would probably change downward (out of the top of my head from a WSJ briefing book quarterly erarnings chart and the observation that margins used to be much higher when a substantial portion of the revenues was royalty based. You can not extrapolate this to the present as the revenue mix has changed). BTW the WSJ briefing books charts and fundamental data summaries are a good first step in studying a stock. Can see trends easily. This combined wtih Yahoo's profile are always my first steps before starting reading SEC fillings). The Q4 results will be BERY BERY BERY important in determining what the future profit prospects for this business are. Any one with the skill to assess how they will do better than the crowd will have an edge. This is precisely what I am trying to do. Until we prove that profit potential for this idea is low there are certainly better shorts out there. If our research indicates the probability this puppy will miss Q4 is significant (i.e. above .8) I will let the split run its course in Jan and then short the hell out if it if I find any shares, they should not announce until some time in early/mid Feb. Pancho