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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15947)	12/25/1997 11:22:00 PM
From: Raj	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Iqbal, I think you have poked some major holes in the Forbes analysis which BTW I found quite shallow. I just want to add that it is very incorrect to lump INTC and to some extent TXN with other semis. INTC's main revenue is in Pentium CPUs and its only competitors (quite insignificant at present) are AMD, Cyrix, etc, ....not Samsung, Hyundai, NEC, etc. Indeed semis producing commodity chips like DRAMS will be exposed to price pressures....but not as you correctly pointed out, to the alarming extent indicated in the Forbes article. Currently Korea is a net importer and will find it extremely hard to "dump" their way out of the crisis. IMO Korea and the other ASEAN countries will actually emerge structurally better and stronger in the medium to long term but near term will go thru a lot of pains. Anyone selling capital goods into ASEAN will be significantly impacted by the current crisis, semi equipment manufacturers, telecom infrastructure suppliers, construction companies etc. I think PC makers will be OK, but companies selling "servers" will be impacted. IMHO Raj

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15947)	12/26/1997 2:33:00 AM
From: halfscot	Respond to of 50167

IQBAL: I agree with much you say-heck, I really don't understand about half of it due to my own ignorance re: world economies-but where I'm coming from is the basic psychology we are now seeing at work on this market. So far every strong stock or sector we've seen with major declines really don't seem justified when you consider the fundamentals, but they happened nevertheless. Most of what I've read so far supports your position that the asian effect is overdone when it comes to the exposure of certain co.s to the asian market-one exception being the Forbes article. But as in most cases "all boats rise and fall with the tide" and I don't think this is an exception when it comes to certain sectors like some/most of the tech sectors and oil as two examples(Of course the oil sector has fallen due to circumstances entirely different from the asian influence). Everyone is very nervous right now, what with all the bearish statements emanating from so many analysts, and these sectors will respond to the slightest rumors or news-especially bad rumors or news. The good news for us investors is most of these stocks have already majorly broken down to, or near, major support levels and are looking like very good longs again but it would be best to see a reversal rather than try to guess the bottom. I'm thinking, as I said in my last post, that there may still be some stocks which haven't yet reached bottom and we could maybe make some $ riding them down while waiting for the sector(s)/stock(s) to reverse to the upside. Part of the reversal will probably be heralded by repeated news, supported by earnings data, of the slight effect the asian flu is having on many of these strong co.s like INTC, MOT, and TXN. But any earnings pre-announcements by these co.s ascribed to asian market problems will only confirm the fear and further depress the overall sector. So, I'm coming from the psychological approach when trying to consider what will happen next. It's too frustrating trying to make sense of what's happening in the face of the fundamental evidence to the contrary. halfscot