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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill c. who wrote (8589)	12/26/1997 7:12:00 PM
From: bill c.	Respond to of 21342

[ Running the DSL numbers ] Running the DSL numbers The business case for DSL deployment says you don't have to cannibalize existing services just to get new revenue. americasnetwork.com What's next for xDSL ? All hype aside, xDSL keeps up the hectic pace. americasnetwork.com Commercial xDSL pricing makes its debut Some billing patterns are already emerging. americasnetwork.com

To: bill c. who wrote (8589)	12/27/1997 11:39:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

<..I agree that these threads have little effect on Westell's stock price...> Well, it would seem then we agree here. Agreeing that this is the case would allow us to publically consider the potential WSTL/ADSL negatives without the discussion degrading into a useless PR battle (ala AMTX). <..Then again I've seen ASND, COMS, FORE, SHVA, BAY, PAIR, AWRE etc come down ~50% from their 52 week highs. You believe it's a FUNDAMENTAL problem with Westell,... what is your opinion on those other NETWORKING stocks? ..> I think technology has had a massive run, and is currently in consolidation. I think earnings disappointments may continue to reinforce this for some time yet, and that Asian concerns will continue to haunt. But specific to Westell, I DO believe that larger scale ADSL deployments are further off than once anticipated. <..You like to remind EVERYONE that Westell is currently trading at $11.... "but you've made your bet"...> I hardly think that characterizes my posts. Let's review our recent exchange: I posted a reference (in response to another poster) to a Forward Concepts study that claimed cable modems would likely beat out xDSL at a greater than 4:1 ratio into the year 2002. You jumped in and called this BS. Acknowledging that it certainly MIGHT turn out to be wrong, I suggested there was still value in considering the points. You continued to disagree with the premise, seeming to take it as a personal challenge, and from there it went. <..I view your timing of this negative disinforamtion "PEG" in poor taste......Your Westell PEG numbers seem to change every post. I hope lurkers/posters start questioning your REAL reasons for posting these false/every-changing numbers on the thread... ...I have a problem with your confusing numbers that lack detail, which are based on assumption after assumption and change from post to post.....> This is completely disingenuous and inconsistent with your opening statement (where you ostensibly agree that - discussions here do not affect stock price and should not be reduced to worthless PR battlezones). First, you seem to continually miss the clarifying point I made, that OUR armchair analyses are meandering, incomplete extrapolations, nothing more. We can each plug numbers into a rough, ADSL-modem profit model, but will remain off-target of true Westell earnings numbers. In response to your generic and inconsequential accusation, the only numbers I "changed" (and which I then ALSO explained) were: - a correction of INCREASING my number of WSTL shares outstanding (Yahoo had SO at 15MM, whereas First Call had the correct 36MM) - I had originally posted that First Call was looking for Westell to be profitable in 99. But I had erroneously posted FC's numbers for AMTX. I corrected this to reflect that First Call doesn't expect Westell to show profit until 2000. - in my last "armchair" PEG analysis, I more generously used a 25% gross margin for Westell instead of my previous 20%, as well as the correct number (36MM) of Westell SO. But again I continued (and continue) to clarify that OUR "analyses" are deficient. By omitting other costs, they significantly OVERSTATE Westell's earnings projections. I also suggested that you should look to the many research reports, or at least to Westell's most recent quarterly report (which I referenced) for some of what is missed in our armchair modeling. And also as I've said, I personally prefer to look to these more thorough research reports from professionals who talk regularly to the company. You, of course, seem to prefer (and are welcome) to dismiss them. Further, your labeling of my posts as disinformation, and your other inflammatory accusations, are groundless, incorrect and unwarranted. In fact, in stark contrast to YOUR side of this discussion, I have been VERY clear and generous in representing my opinions, as well as the independent research reports which I reference, as being fallible. In addition to your "adamant" one-sidedness, these errant and unfounded accusations tend to characterize to you as no less a silly PR propagandist (with the consequent presumption of "protecting your space"), than AMTX's Mudge, et al. So until you get a sense of the difference between the represention of opinion vs. fact, and can tolerate the open consideration of all sides of an issue vs. one-sided propagandist defense, without resorting to false personal attacks, I suspect that our interactions will promote more noise than it will a more thorough Westell understanding. Good luck to you- Steve