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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (3853)	2/19/2016 11:31:24 AM
From: robert b furman	2 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar Gottfried Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26783

Good Morning Chip and Kirk, Chipper ,I'm thinking the low on 1/20 was a iii of C - the low of 2/11 was the final low of C or v of C. Hopefully this finishes a long Corrective wave that could go back as far as July 2015. As you point out many indicators were deeper in gloom on 2/11 than 1/20 : CLX 10 day,30day,and fred's 34 week, 2cs reading were a bit lower on 1/20 154.34 vs the 2/11 number of 148.65 - both very close. Sentiment readings were both very fear oriented. Earnings for the semi sector have come in with quite a few beats and quite a few better guidances. Amat,brks,cohu, all gave better guidance and had book to bill come in stronger than 1.0. The news media just doesn't want to declare our economy as solid - fear mongering sells more I guess. Note this bloomberg article regarding imports of containerized goods - not exactly the stuff of recessions: Los Angeles Port Sees Greatest Increase in Imports in Six Years Christopher Palmeri February 17, 2016 — 2:02 PM CST January imports through the port of Los Angeles climbed the most in six years, signaling that disruptions caused by contract disputes have finally eased. Los Angeles import volume surged 42 percent to the equivalent of 367,208 containers, according to the port. Total traffic rose 33 percent, making it the busiest January in the port’s 109-year history. Neighboring Long Beach reported a jump of 25 percent to 536,188 units, the seventh straight monthly increase. “We are encouraged by the strong start to the year, which stands in stark contrast to the congestion we faced a year ago,” Port of Long Beach Chief Executive Officer Jon Slangerup said in a statement. The ports, the two largest cargo handlers in the U.S., were mired in contract negotiations with dockworkers and shortages of equipment such as truck trailers that led to a backup during the 2014 holiday season that spilled over into 2015. Some cargo was diverted to other ports last January as a result of the congestion. Cargo increased for such categories as clothing, furniture and electronics, according to Lee Peterson, a spokesman for Long Beach. “It’s pretty much across the board,” he said. There is no doubt that commodity prices are in recessionary decline. oil, metals, grains all are very low. Here in Wisconsin fertilizer and diesel are very cheap as inputs costs are declining along with the commodity prices. I know of no farmer who is not planting,and not pursuing land improvements which maximize yield. Technology is really boosting yields in many ways - soil enrichment, water control, fertilizer savings, gps tractors and no till planting. It is a good story and it is not being told ! We as a country are evolving at a faster pace than most of the World. Just seems to me know one wants to let the cat out of the bag.(may be smart) As for owning utilities - I've marveled at how the telecoms are doing so well ( T and VZ). My wife has become a smart phone junkie. She has a friend wondering how to invest her money - I told her buy T - she asked if T was safe - I asked her if she planned on using her phone less? She understood my point.LOL I have sold 30 and 32 puts on T for 2 years . This last september it looked like I might be able to get some 32's put to me - but they've just been on a very solid run up since. Even with a very warm winter utilities are doing well. If we were having a recession looming - would utilities see it - I think so. I say get this expiration behind us and good news may well be treated as good news again - it has not been that way in a long time. Bob