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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SKIP PAUL who wrote (2037)	12/28/1997 8:09:00 PM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3506

Link to an interesting site for tracking. eagle-eye-tech.com

To: SKIP PAUL who wrote (2037)	1/1/1998 4:06:00 AM
From: Yin Shih	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3506

>Trimble has about Eleven distinct business lines. In my opinion the >major drivers of growth in each of these business lines during 1998 >will be: >Aviation: > >Free flight I'm a private pilot and have spent a bit of time looking at the use of GPS in the aviation industry. Basically, I don't think "free flight" will be a sales driver for at least 3-5 years. First "free flight" means that every plane flies on its own self-selected route to the desired destination with minimal guidance from ATC. The principle here is the "big sky" idea. That is, once a plane is out of a terminal area, the chance of collision is extremely small giving the relatively small number of planes and the vastness of the air volume. This is an interesting idea, but the FAA and ATC are not structured to deal with this in any procedural way at this time. No rules are being proposed in this area and I think an NPRM (notice of proposed rule-making) would be the tip-off that this might really happen but only after a good 12-24 months of discussion for a revision this major. The only way that free-flight works is if the planes that participate in the ATC system have IFR-certified Area Nav or RNAV/GPS and this also implies a probably lengthy grace period to allow planes time to add the GPS avionics that they are not currently required to have. The FAA just took something like 5-10 years to crack down and force a transition from 360 to 720 channel comm radios. If "free-flight" is expanded to include non-IFR (non-visual meteorological conditions) flight, then that is only the system that exists now where a VFR (visual meteorological conditions) flight does not have to participate in the ATC system and can fly on any path desired (subject to airspace rules). But many small planes that do this now do so using a hand-held GPS and TRMB doesn't have any competitive models in this market segment. TRMB does have models for the large planes, but they would convert anyway for operational savings and safety so this is not new or add-on business. There are two things holding back more planes and pilots from adding a panel mount GPS unit. 1) the cost of panel mounts is 5-10x that of a handheld with no obvious gain in functionality, except that the FAA is willing to certify a panel mount for IFR operations where it isn't for a handheld. 2) WAAS is not in place yet and no one is sure if it won't require some special modifications to existing panel mounts or a complete replacement. Yes, panel mount manufacturers claim WAAS upgradability - but the users perceive that as a guess and thus a risk. So why pay for a $$$ panel mount now with a possible short life of only 2-3 years until WAAS goes on-line and the compatibility issue unanswered? Thus the big market in hand-held aviation GPS units. Yin Shih