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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ted odell who wrote (9002)	12/29/1997 5:45:00 AM
From: Gary R. Owens	Respond to of 9285

To all: An interesting link for highest PEs tscn.com^E.html Looks like some #s are innacurate though, CVS isn't going for 1000+ gary

To: ted odell who wrote (9002)	12/29/1997 9:35:00 AM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

Union Pacific (UNP) has had very significant troubles digesting its $3.9 billion purchase of Southern Pacific, and has warned that its service problems will drag down quarterly earnings much more than expected. They report January 22. AOL's First Call shows 11 brokers follow the stock, and estimate 4th quarter earnings anywhere from -0.22 to +0.48, with a median of -0.04. Yet the median estimate for 1997 is still 2.41, and for 1998 is 4.08. With that kind of earning power, I have to think there are better short candidates. Also, the stock pays a 2.7% dividend, which the short-seller would have to pay if he holds over the dividend period. If you really think the company will lose more than the estimates call for, it might be worthwhile to short it (or buy puts) just before the earnings release. I'm not sure when the stock goes ex-dividend (dividend information is one thing I haven't found on the Internet), so check that before entering any short.

To: ted odell who wrote (9002)	12/29/1997 6:42:00 PM
From: Michael Berkel	Respond to of 9285

Ted, thanks for posting UNP here. This looks a great short!! 1) Standard & Poors recently revised its outlook on UNP to negative from stable. Ongoing congestion problems could lead to a substantial 4th quarter loss and that earnings for all of '97 are expected to be less than 1996. 2) PCH said it expects fourth quarter '97 earnings to be significantly below analysts estimate. PCH attributed the shortfall to rail and truck problems as the result of ongoing problems at UNP. 3) Class action against UNP I fully agree Ted, problems are far worse than wat is being reported. Troubles are afoot and I am short. Thanks again. Michael Berkel