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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (43313)	12/29/1997 9:01:00 AM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Good Morning John, Article...Your 64-bit Future... Berst Alert MONDAY, DECEMBER 29, 1997 Your 64-Bit Future Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk It's the 64-bit question. Since many people haven't even moved to 32-bit Windows 95, why should we be worrying about the 64-bit future? In a word: inflection. In Silicon Valley parlance, an inflection point is a dramatic shift. Think of it like a crossroads, where the course of computing can suddenly and swiftly take a new direction. The IBM PC was an inflection point. So was Windows 3.0. And 64-bit computing will be another major change, because 64-bit computers have the power to enable ground-breaking new applications -- speech recognition, natural language processing, lifelike 3D, full-motion video, personal agents that learn as they go, and more. If you are hoping for -- or investing in -- power-hungry technologies like these, the move to 64-bitness is all-important. So let me give you a quick roadmap, beginning with 64-bit processors. Here's a list of major players, in approximate order of importance to mainstream users. Intel Merced. Due in 1999, the Merced will appear first in servers and (despite what Intel says right now) will show up in workstations shortly thereafter. This is the processor that everybody is targeting for mainstream 64-bit computing. Sun UltraSPARC. Currently a favorite for high-end servers and workstations. Sun says it will move more aggressively into the low-end market. But there won't be much software for those low-end workstations to run unless Java takes off as a platform. Silicon Graphics MIPS. Caught in the same bind as Sun only worse. MIPS machines made the dinosaurs for Jurassic Park, but the graphics market is too small to sustain growth and I can't see how the company will move MIPS into the mainstream. Digital Alpha. Although I called it the "Digital" Alpha, the processor is really owned by Intel now. Most analysts believe Intel will eventually kill the product. Too bad. It's a terrific design and it runs Windows NT, giving it a large software base. Still, it's unlikely Intel will compete with itself, so the Alpha may go away about the time Merced appears. IBM Power3 PowerPC. IBM claims it is continuing development. But IBM's development partner, Motorola, seems to be resigned to a future where the PowerPC is used only for servers and embedded systems. Given Apple's problems, Motorola's discouragement and IBM's confusion, PowerPC's 64-bit future is murky right now. Hewlett-Packard PA-RISC. Although HP continues to develop this chip, it also partnered with Intel on the Merced. I believe the PA-RISC will become a niche chip for high-end servers and eventually phase out. Given the way Microsoft has crushed all its competition in the operating system wars, it might seem certain that it will dominate 64-bit computing as well. But the company has not yet committed to a full-scale 64-bit version of Windows NT (only to certain 64-bit features). If legal battles or technical issues slow down the Merced version of NT, high-end developers may have to look to another operating system for early access to the chip's power. They'll have lots of choices. Virtually every important server OS maker will move its software to Merced's IA-64 architecture, even those that have chips of their own. Sun has already said it will port Solaris to Merced. Novell seems certain to create a 64-bit version of NetWare (and certain to be late with it, based on its track record). Several other less-likely candidates are also headed for Merced. Hewlett-Packard, Digital Equipment and SCO say they will make their versions of Unix available for Merced. IBM is likely to do the same. Apple may create a Merced version of its new Rhapsody OS. And even Silicon Graphics may develop a Merced version of its Irix operating system. Look for Merced to hit the market late in 1999. That will signal the start of the 64-bit onrush, which will surge throughout 2000 and 2001. And it will start the death round for server operating systems. NT is sure to be one of the ones left standing. I expect Solaris and NetWare to remain strong in their niches, but the others listed above will have to find a new strategy or watch their market share diminish. Inflection points are about sudden change. About new opportunities. About new fortunes. About placing big bets. ______________________________________________________________________ Michael