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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (18046)	3/25/2016 3:01:44 PM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By Davy Crockett Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

please keep me informed regarding your UVXY ,,,, I have been watching the june vix futures contract the past few days.. was pondering going long it on Friday. The UVXY etf appears to have an overall premium erosion component to it and I have been trying to understand the volatility ETF's better. here is the one year UVXY here is the two year UVXY notice the massive overall downtrend in the ETF..... which becomes starkly obvious when we look at the ETF Price since it's inception in 2012 which I will show further down. OK here us the UXVY since it's inception in 2012......... riddle me this batman.....? (camp '60's reference from the Batman series with Adam West) what has been going on with the pricing of this instrument below..... 210,000......down to 21,25 a record low this past Tuesday March 22nd. The way it dropped so precipitously in 2012 into 2013 makes me think they had to re-calibrate the way the UVXY was comprised or valued, However I do Agree with you very much that implied Volatility has gotten way to low the past few days read the next article that I am posting on Volatility and the UVXY and it's related products. John

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (18046)	3/25/2016 3:17:22 PM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Recommended By Davy Crockett roguedolphin Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Options Guru Says VIX Looks Poised To Pop, Sees ‘Volatility Overshoot’ March 21, 2016, 12:36 P.M. ET by Chris DieterichLots of market-watchers are talking about the recent plunge in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX, an options-based measure of market expectations for future price swings in the S&P 500, *just had its sharpest 25-day decline on record, says MKM Partners’* derivatives strategist,Jim Strugger. The VIX fell from *28 on Feb. 11 to 14* *last week.* The decline means that demand for short-term options protection *fell fast while U.S. stocks roared higher.* Is a plunging VIX an all-clear signal for stocks? Not quite. Just as analysts struggle to find meaning in the S&P 500's swift, double-digit rebound since early last month, so too are VIX watchers wrestling with the meaning of the drop in the market’s “fear gauge.” As noted earlier, Katie Stockton at BTIG sees the slump in the VIX as a worrisome sign that the rebound rally could be nearing an end. Strugger agrees. He says the recent VIX slide looks like a “volatility overshoot.” He explains: “Given the pace of decline in volatility … it seems that an absolute trough may be in place or near. That suggests elevated risk for U.S. equities following *a 12% rally from the early February low and means it is time to reduce net long exposure.* We will circle back on recommendations for hedges and long volatility exposure over the next few days.” Fund flows in exchange-traded instruments that track VIX futures are in agreement. Since Feb. 11 (the day that stocks bottomed), nearly *$450 million has flowed into the Barclays iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures exchange-traded note ( VXX),* which generally rises and falls together with VIX. *Some $710 million has gone into the* ProShares Ultra Vix Short-Term Futures ETF ( UVXY) and another $111 million into the VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN ( TVIX). Meanwhile, nearly $300 million has moved out of the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN ( XIV). This one rises when the VIX falls and vice versa. All data from ETF.com. In short, traders appear to be *positioning for a rise in volatility*, rather than a decline (editorial note I also believe that volatility will rise and the next move is likely to be to the downside. We have seen the Key focal leaders of Crude roll over from it's Feb 11th rally off of $26.05 low , The RUT and the NDX ( Nasday 100) index all look like they are rolling over.) http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/03/21/options-guru-says-vix-looks-poise-to-pop-sees-volatility-overshoot/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo John

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (18046)	3/25/2016 5:04:37 PM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By roguedolphin Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Davy,A couple of short term SPX charts with Fib retracements....... and then the 2 year SPX daily chart... is the daily chart the structure of a very large distributive top.... Sure is looking like it. The Action in the daily chart of the RUT, the NDX.. which is failing at it's w 200 day MA and some of this sentiment data such as the 5 week record collapse in the VIX and the massive bear market squeeze in Crude and the energy sector stocks supports this thesis. As we have discussed Crude appears to have rolled over. $42 was a GANN square of 9 key resistance area based on the low of 26.05 we reached in Feb. here is some levels we on the short term chart that we have broken below on the SPX 5 Day 5 minute chart more pertainly this chart is latest very short term levels on the 5 day 15 minute bar chart. the RUT failed at the 1103 level of resistance and had a daily RSI and ROC momentum signal JP