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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (13920)	12/30/1997 1:52:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, an assessment of the Korean situation from a Korean newspaper. If the expected increase in the unemployment rate happens, Korea's rate will be half that of Germany. Inflation may "soar" to 7.4% (worst case estimate) - not exactly a tragedy. I would encourage anyone to browse this paper for a better feel of the Korean mood. Notice how the forecasts come from the Korean conglomerates. korealink.co.kr New Year to See Critical Economic Decline 12/30 13:49 Due to shrivelling domestic consumption, private research institutes are anticipating negative economic growth and warning that the government will fail to reach its targets even if the economy is able to bounce back somewhat from the foreign exchange crisis. According to the LG Economic Research Institute, gross domestic product (GDP) will decline for the first time since 1980 because of the extremely tight control of the money supply and the restructuring of financial operations and banking operations. Specifically, LG predicts an 1.3 GDP growth below zero next year. Daewoo Economic Research Institute forecasts that the economic growth will linger around 1.3 percent below zero to 2.2 percent, regardless of whether IMF-backed programs are implemented. Hyundai Economic Research Institute anticipates the growth at 2.8-2.9 percent and Samsung Economic Research Institute at 2.7 percent. The weakening economic growth is consequently pushing up the unemployment rate. LG foresees the jobless rate soaring to 5.7 percent, contradicting the government's target of 2.5 percent. Daewoo and Samsung came up with 5.0 percent and Hyundai with 4.2-4.3 percent. Based on their jobless predictions, the number of unemployed is expected to hit 1 million-1.3 million next year. With regards to commodity prices, LG predicts they will surge 7.4 percent, Daewoo 6.2 percent, Hyundai 5.8 percent and Samsung 5.2 percent, unanimously giving little confidence to the government's determination to curb it at 5 percent. In contrast, the surging exchange rate and shriveling domestic consumption will expand exports and shrink imports, greatly reducing the current account deficit or even bringing a surplus. LG and Hyundai anticipate the current account will register surpluses of 9.8 billion and $5 billion, respectively, while Daewoo and Samsung predict that the deficit will narrow to $5.5 billion and $3.5 billion. However, Hyundai forecasts that if the reorganization of weak banking institutions is delayed and the foreign exchange market is not stabilized, then the economic growth rate will dive to 2 percent below zero and that the unemployment rate and consumer prices will soar to 5.3 and 7.4 percent respectively. Meanwhile, Samsung and Daewoo said they will present their revised macro economic outlook after taking into account developments in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their forecasts.