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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (11140)	12/30/1997 12:46:00 AM
From: Scrapps	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

The timing could be right, why don't you start a word war with him...that would prove or disprove it real quick. <GG>

To: DMaA who wrote (11140)	12/31/1997 9:23:00 AM
From: Moonray	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 22053

A look towards the near future (NFL indicator not withstanding) NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks appear set to close 1997 with a typical year-end rally but a crucial test for the staying power of the bull market will come in January, technical analysts said. Recent bull market years have begun with gains in January, fed by large doses of new cash flowing into the market from bonus payments, dividend distributions and annual retirement account contributions. If the January 1998 cash influx is not sufficient to support a rally, it could indicate that enough damage was done to Wall Street in 1997's fourth quarter to cripple the bull market, analysts said. ''A total failure of any strength through much of January would not be a good sign for the market,'' said Ricky Harrington, technical analyst at Interstate/Johnson Lane. ''This is one year where the January indicator could very easily work.'' The so-called ''January Barometer'' dictates that if the Standard & Poor's 500 finishes January higher, it will end the year higher, or vice versa The barometer has correctly forecasted the market's direction 42 out of 47 times since 1950, according to the Hirsch Organization, publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac. This year the S&P 500 rose 6.1 percent in January. The index was up 29 percent for the year through Monday. On Tuesday afternoon, the Dow was up 68 points following Monday's broad rally, which was helped by what was seen as at least a temporary stabilization of the economic turmoil in South Korea and investors' expectations of a January rally. The Dow industrials Monday ended up 113 points, or 1.5 percent at 7,792. The S&P 500 rose 17 points, or 1.8 percent, to 953. The market is holding a typical ''Santa Claus'' rally, analysts said. The Santa Claus rally occurs within the last five trading days of the year and the first two days of January. It has been good for a gain of 1.72 percent on average over the past 44 years, according to the Hirsch Organization, which compiles historical data on U.S. stock markets. But technical analysts said they did not place much importance on the latest move. They noted the relatively low volume due to shortened holiday sessions last week and many market players being away on vacation. The true test will come in January as participants return, corporations report fourth quarter profits and investors decide how much cash they want to put into the stock market. Gregory Nie, technical analyst at Everen Securities, said bulls will argue that 1997's gains are a sign of the unprecedented strength of the stock market. Back-to-back annual gains of over 20 percent have historically been followed by losses or meager gains, according to the Hirsch Organization. But after gaining 33 percent in 1995 and 26 percent in 1996, the Dow was up 21 percent through Monday. But bears will argue that the seeds of an extended downturn were sown during market's struggles in the fourth quarter amid the economic crisis in Asia, Nie said. ''There's going to be a big tug-of-war right out of the gate in 1998,'' Nie said. Nie said he was expecting an upward bias in the market come January. ''I'm leaning heavily on the oversold condition that we still have and the most recent pattern, which has been large (cash) inflows in the first part of January.'' Another key to the market's performance in January will be whether major indexes are able hold above their lows established this month, said Jonathan Dodd, technical analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. He listed the lows at around 7,550-7,600 on the Dow and 930-935 on the S&P 500, set Dec. 19, a day when the Dow recovered from a 270-point fall to end down 90 points on huge volume. ''I think if we're going to see strength in January, then you have to hold the lows here in December,'' Dodd said. o~~~ O