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To: StaggerLee who wrote (5256)	12/30/1997 6:37:00 AM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

OFF-TOPIC: TA Well, it's like this. A year ago, I was working in the same office building with a bunch of Charles Schwab people, and someone brought me a book that he had found in a garbage can, "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications" by John J. Murphy, 1986. While this concentrates on charts for futures, I believe that the applications are the same as those used for common stock, so I read the book. My problem with many of the techniques is that they are subjective. For example, even if I accept the Elliot Wave Theory, I still have to be able to see the waves. It's one thing to see them in this book, where they are drawn in simplistic form, or to see them in the one or two actual futures charts that are included, (which were no doubt very carefully selected), and where the waves are highlited -- but it's a very different thing to look at a current stock that I actually have an interest in, and to "catch the wave." I don't think there are any computer programs out there that can do that, either. Some patterns are easier to see than others. The reversal patterns of a head and shoulders or double or triple top are easier to see than the continuation patterns of triangles. What if the recognition of a head and shoulders pattern doesn't result in a profit? Simple, we'll call it a "failed head and shoulders pattern." And what does this signify? "There are two important lessons here. The first is that none of these chart patterns are infallible. They work most of the time, but not always. The second lesson is that technical traders must always be on the alert for chart signs that their analysis is incorrect." [I could just as easily say the same thing for some of my own special indicators -- when certain people become interested in a stock on the long side, it means that it will soon drop 90%.] Now, in all fairness, there are many other TA techniques, including some which are ideally suited to computers. I may try to rely on a few of them more in the future. These include the use of two or three moving averages, and using stochastic oscillators, and I also like Japanese candlesticks. But I think I'm always going to pay more attention to fundamental analysis.

To: StaggerLee who wrote (5256)	12/30/1997 9:20:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27307

Off Topic Stagger, you can go to the Avant! thread, and find Cosmo's posts. Get historical quotes and find when it went up to 35 in late August/early September. Then read his posts about that time. you cannot argue that he did not do it. You've got your mind made up, but I think you're wrong. I told you I don't care about the stuffed shirt academicians. >>> IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO BEAT BUY AND HOLD, I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU DO!<<< Yeah, someone that bought and held in 1928 did real well. Ditto in 1972. Tell it to the buy and holders of Snapple, OXHP, etc. Sankar, care to chime in on how well buy and hold worked with CTYS? Barb!