SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (4040)5/10/2016 11:28:17 AM
From: The Ox2 Recommendations

Recommended By
3bar
Kirk ©

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26439
 
Great question.
I wonder if there is enough gas in the tank to make a new high....


I think too many don't realize the massively negative sentiment that was involved when the market made the recent lows in February. Here's what I wrote yesterday and I think this may be one of the reasons the market has much more fuel available than many think possible (at this time).
Here's something I've been thinking about for a while and finally got around to taking a look at Les's Thread: Subject 25738

During the recent lows in Feb of this year, the number of stocks below their 200dma was nearly identical to the numbers we saw during the bottom of the market in 2002. 88% of the stocks in Les's Market/Sector Breadth Journal-Overall Database were below their 200dma. Earlier this year, the negative sentiment in the market reached a dramatic level and we've clearly seen it show up in the data.

In looking back during the 2002 low, the market didn't really pick up a full head of steam until March of 2003 but I remind myself that this was after a few years of "crashing" from the "Enron Top" or dotcom craze....whichever you prefer. So extreme negative sentiment was somewhat understandable at that stage of the process.

In our most recent case, the amount of negativity that surfaced in only a few months was massive and I will be looking into more of the details of these "sentiment" washouts from the past.

NOTE: In 2009, we saw the figure climb to 97% of Les's universe of stock sitting below 200dma. Likely, a once in a generation (or possibly lifetime) low.