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To: slacker711 who wrote (190442)5/12/2016 10:06:33 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213177
 
If you look at the last downturn, the stock bottomed even earlier. The low was around June of 2013 which was a full 15 months ahead of the launch of the iPhone 6.


Thinking more about this though, the Docomo and China Mobile iPhone debuts happened with the 5S and were likely the reason for the bottom. It probably wasnt anticipation of the iPhone 6 that drove the buying.

Slacker



To: slacker711 who wrote (190442)5/12/2016 10:10:03 AM
From: neolib5 Recommendations

Recommended By
Bill from Wisconsin
HerbVic
JakeStraw
kimberley
Zen Dollar Round

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213177
 
then the market starts looking past FY2017 and towards the debut of a dramatically different fall 2017 iPhone.

By then there will be another 250M recent model iPhones and another 750M recent model Android phones in circulation. I've been a great fan of the mobile Fad and was one of the early predictors here on SI on my AMD board (to much laughter) on how it would clobber PC's, but its time to start admitting the Fad is peaking as well. Its best to see these things ahead of time rather than in the rear-view mirror.



To: slacker711 who wrote (190442)5/12/2016 1:05:45 PM
From: Bill from Wisconsin1 Recommendation

Recommended By
SirWalterRalegh

  Respond to of 213177
 
I don't see us getting that low

I still have faith that they'll take out the big gun (accelerated buyback) before then and they'll start giving real indications of what they are planning (showing some leg). I don't believe Tim is stupid. But he's definitely testing my beliefs and the market's

I agree, the market is a discounting mechanism. As such it is definitly re adjusting where we go from here. For it to stop adjusting downward, Tim needs to start showing a concrete roadmap as opposed to more "fantastic' and "change your life" rhetoric.

Right now, the market is starting to see their life after the iPhone and aren't seeing where Apple and AAPL fit into it.