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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (4064)	5/24/2016 6:55:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26434

LOL... advice worth every penny! I wouldn't know what a 4 wave was if it broke on my head at Mavericks. You know, for me, ewave is worthless for predicting the future as people really don't know what it was until after it happened and even then, half can't seem to agree. The way I look at it, what you call what happens doesn't matter because with $19T in debt on the books and now I'm reading debt proponents (you know, those who want the government to build new infrastructure everywhere and give health care and Social Security to everyone they promised) say our national debt to total net worth is still tiny since you can sell naming rights to Half Dome and put a real value on all the National real estate.... So... do people pay $5 for a cup of coffee with some hot chocolate in the mid west? It was $10 with tip to have two mocha's a few days ago at Peet's.... and a gal I mentor took me for a mocha and croissant at some trendy place bakery restaurant in Los Altos with a French chef trained in Japan ... $20 for two coffees and two croissants.... it guess it was organic butter they sing to while cooking each morning. Oh, some will say it wasn't what we bought but the "experience" of fine dining for an affordable snack... No matter what you call it, they are finding all sorts of ways to charge us more for less... inflation. They can't "officially" raise taxes so they will inflate the crap out of everything with taxes and higher minimum wages and whatever fees they can add to pay for everything without having to pay savers a fair return. People will need chips in their hands or phones or keycards to pay for and order stuff... so AMAT and others will have some pricing power and can continue to pay dividends... far more valuable than gov. bonds... but I'll raise cash in the short term to buy the dips that come out of nowhere. If no dips come and we blast to the moon, then I'll buy more $20 snacks and chuckle....

To: robert b furman who wrote (4064)	5/25/2016 4:07:07 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26434

Do you get Stockcharts commentary? I'll just post the headline, some text and one of the graphs that comes with a paid subscription to show what I mean about eWave.... I wonder if this last decline was a 4 wave? This is what I mean by even the experts seem to disagree on what we just saw, not to mention what the future holds! Wed, May 25 2016 2:39 PM ET ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT STOCKS HAVE BEEN IN A WAVE FOUR CORRECTION -- SINCE BULL MARKETS USUALLY HAVE FIVE WAVES, THAT MEANS THERE'S ANOTHER UPWAVE TO COME -- BOTH VERSIONS OF NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE LOOK STRONG -- S&P 500 HEADS UP FOR TEST OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE By John Murphy STOCKS ARE ENDING WAVE FOUR CORRECTION... I find Elliott Wave Analysis very helpful in keeping the stock market's trend in proper perspective. I'm revisiting the subject here because I believe it may explain what's happening in global stocks. Here's a brief explanation. Major bull markets take place in five waves. That includes three upwaves (waves 1, 3, and 5) interrupted by two corrective waves (2 and 4). Last July 9 I suggested that the stock market had completed three major upwaves from its 2009 bottom. [See blue numerals in Chart 1]. The message warned that the market was due for "a period of consolidation or correction within its major uptrend" (a wave 4). An August 22 message was headlined: "STOCK HAVE ENTERED WAVE 4 CORRECTION". The good news is that wave fours are usually only an interruption in a longer range uptrend. Blue numeral 1 shows the first upwave ending in early 2011 followed by a wave 2 correction (II). A rising wave 3 (III) lasted from late 2011 to mid-2015. The Wave 4 correction starting last August bottomed in February (IV) . That suggests that stocks are transitioning from a corrective wave 4 into a more positive wave 5. Chart 1 also shows the S&P 500 bouncing off a rising trendline drawn under its 2009/2011 lows. You'll have to subscribe to read the rest of what he shows. Here is a link for others who do stockcharts.com FWIW, what I wrote in my last newsletter as IMPORTANT is I think the divergence where many of my stocks like AMAT made higher lows in Feb along with sentiment making higher lows while the S&P made a lower low.