Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (441)	5/26/2016 8:04:50 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 668

This was edits I had ready to go, not counting fixing typos which are unfixable for some reason. My edits came in too late. EDIT BELOW Well my son deleted that post - uggh. Lots of stuff looking at recent rally day counts and how we are at A top in next few days, unless recent history changes. Correction may be 3-5 days like at the beginning of the previous rally from March into April where we rallied 8-10 days (not straight up mind you - we did have 1-2 day reversals), rested 3-5 days and then rallied again for a similar number of days. We are in that same 8-10 range currently. Back to 4 day streaks (for those who care about such things, as I am calculating currently, a 5 day streak results in 2 cases, Day 1-4 and Day 2-5). I am not sure how much it matters but I will work with formulas and try to see. I am trying not to make too many judgments about data itself before running analysis. There are complex formulas that will do some of this but I am using multiple columns to count the streak up for now (uses logic as opposed to knowing complex formulas) and I minimize data width (number of items pulled down) and maximize number of dates on these analyses so not a big deal. I had a wonderful formula that worked by accident (good and bad logic mixed but it turned out to really work) but I cannot find. But this stuff not so hard as long as you break into logical steps. I wonder what these operating systems would look like if I were in charge (klunnnnnkkkkkkky). Anyway, there are 186 cases overall. We have an average return in Day 5 of -3 bps and a median of 8 bps. Yes, big falls often happen from exhausted streaks, in this case 11 falls of more than 2.5% with the worst two being -8% during the 2008 crash and -5% kicking off the corrective action in the middle of the last rally in March (March 22 to be precise). There we rallied with the 4 required green closes in a row and then engulfed the last day of that 4th green close (that last day of green was large up day too, well over 3% up). Quite a few 2008 and 2015 examples are in the set. There were seven days with enormous gains on Day 5: the biggest, at 6% was predictably enough on the 6th day of the 6th month of 2014 (hey this is dry stuff - gotta have fun with it). Other big up moves occurred in 2013 and 2014 with the obligatory post 2008 bottom point too. BTW 186 since 2006 means we are talking not quite 20 of these streaks per year. I am going to parse this data further in a bit and will report back later. Next post shows how to use the google sheet I created to parse early movers. Then I hope to have a post on key levels above in XBI. And then later some other studies (4 1% up days in a row, 3 gaps in a row). I also want to check on IBB post 50 SMA crosses, similar to study that indicated XBI on weekly basis was good to go, right as this rally really got moving. Jon PS If the above projects are not time intensive enough, I hope to add moving averages to my IBB/XBI page shortly. Maybe the VWAP graph too. More later.