Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (4078)	5/26/2016 2:14:10 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26439

Thanks. That is the chart. I tried your first link and it was dead. I searched Fido and found this fidelity.com The business cycle has four distinct phases, with the example of the U.S. in a mid-cycle expansion in mid-2014. Note: This is a hypothetical illustration of a typical business cycle. There is not always a chronological progression in this order, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. Economically sensitive assets include stocks and high-yield corporate bonds, while less economically sensitive assets include Treasury bonds and cash. Please see endnotes for a complete discussion. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART). For your charts, I'd probably not use BP but relative charts... perhaps each sector relative to bonds... and relative to the S&P500. To me, that would suggest when to move from asset group or... in my case... when to take profits in tech and perhaps diversify into something like Energy or Utilities to have a more diverse portfolio without having to use just index funds. thanks again

To: Return to Sender who wrote (4078)	5/26/2016 2:19:07 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Respond to of 26439

BTW, if I look at how my leading indicator stocks.... such as FedEx that I bought back some profit taking shares for my Explore Portfolio at $121 during the big panic,..... and Finisar that I did the same at $12.50.... I'd say Tech and Transport are moving off big lows... thus we are in the early cycle phase if you go on that sort of thing. Early-cycle phase Lasting an average of about one year, the early phase of the business cycle has historically produced the most robust stock performance on an absolute basis (see chart, below). Stocks have typically benefited more than bonds and cash from the backdrop of low interest rates, the first signs of economic improvement, and the rebound in corporate earnings. Relative to the long-term strategic allocation, stocks have exhibited the greatest outperformance in the early cycle, while bonds and cash have experienced the deepest underperformance (see chart below). A hallmark of this phase is that hit rates against the balanced benchmark are the most definitive, which may give investors greater conviction to overweight riskier assets and underweight more defensive asset classes during the early cycle. fidelity.com FWIW, I already took some very nice profits recently in SOME of what I bought for those two stocks during the 14%+ market declines during the past year.