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Technology Stocks : C-Cube -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DiViT who wrote (27351)	12/31/1997 5:07:00 PM
From: Maya	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50808

SO, what do you base your predictions on? Fundamentals or charts? Here's mine based purely on clairvoyance: 1/15/98: $ 18.50 1/22/98 : $ 22.50 1/30/98 : $ 30.25 It didn't hold $16 today and the volume was heavier than yesterday. Sorry, I was also part of the tax-sell culprit today. Rarebird doesn't want to commit short term. Long term he is predicting it on changes in fundamentals.

To: DiViT who wrote (27351)	12/31/1997 5:25:00 PM
From: Ed's Head	Respond to of 50808

David Nadalin: Take this to the bank!!!! Your analysis regarding price movement over the next 6 months is more likely than our resident short who doesn't understand the fundamental's and dangers of shorting at certain prices. Dave I would suggest that you I become buzzard like and that we sharpen our beaks, for I intend to pick the flesh of the shorts clean! good luck c-ya!

To: DiViT who wrote (27351)	12/31/1997 5:42:00 PM
From: John Rieman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Cube's Q4........................................................................ C-Cube entered Q4 with the potential of setting a new record in revenues(above $95M) It didn't happen. VCD. Cube had a strong October, a slower November and December grows every week. They had the potenial of doing 4.4M units. And price seemed stable, around $11 per unit. The slow down in November was caused by price cut announcements from Idall and others, at the end of Oct. Chinese consumers waited to see those prices at retail. Some of these sales may have been pushed into Q1. A second factor that hurt VCD in Q4 is the Asian crisis. 10 to 15% of VCD sales are outside of China. Korea, Tiawan, Singapore are the largest "other" markets. That part of the business got hit. Cube did about 3.9M units of VCD chips, with ASPs around $10. $39M in revenue. Up from $37M last Q. ZiVA............................. ZiVA sold a little better than expected. I thought 300K units was a little high. They beat that, but the ASP was lower than expected. Per Hagedorn's comments, on Cube's hompage, ZiVA sells for $20 to $30 each, with larger customers getting the lower end of that range. More than 1/2 the chips are sold to larger customers. Cube did over 350K of ZiVA at a $23 ASP. About $8M in revenue. Up from $4M last Q. Settop boxes........................................ Settops had government interferance. Kirch loaded up on settops for their launch October 1, during Q3. They didn't sell as may as expected. Zenith lauched. Canal Plus is picking up, but I don't think those boxes are all Cube. PerfecTV still Cube? Koreasat Boxes, not good. NEC boxes are being built, but in lots of 5K units. Settops are about $9M this Q. Down from $10M last Q. Encoder Chips.......................... Because DVx costs less than $1,500 and the chip-set it replaces cost about $2,500, I see Cube's customers holding off purchasing the old set. Encoding units sales have been growing around 100% annually. This area is down. The new chip will bring new customer/applications and unit sales, but not in Q4. Encoder chips were about $13M this Q. Down from $15M last Q. Divi headends.............................................. Divi has a nice back-log of orders. On their jobs, they bill at differant stages of completion. Their revenue is "lumpy". Divi Headends did about $18M this Q. About $16M last Q. That addes up to $87M in revenue, vs. $81+ last Q. Up-side suprises are posible in the VCD, ZiVA, and Divi Headend business. Even settops may be better, but not encoder chip sales. Dvx on a .35micron basis costs $70 to manufacture. They can sell this chip for less than $300, and maintain margins. And they will cost reduce the chip this year. Announcements expected in Q1.............................. All of these will come with customers.... The ZiVA daughter card. A new DVx chip focused on other applications. ZiVA 2 ( NTSC/PAL video encoder included) The next VCD chip might make it into Q1. With VCD 3.0 support. Cube may have a chip that will compete in a non-MPEG market. But it would compliment VCD and DVD decoder chips. FredE found it in September. We will hear about this in 1998, just don't know how close it is.

To: DiViT who wrote (27351)	1/1/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50808

Very Difficult Year in being long Stocks in 98! I expect the first half of 98 to be very trying and difficult for US investors. At the outset of the year ( Monday- given a full day of trading ) I think we will see earnings worries resurface for the multi-nationals over the Southeast Asian Crisis. A Reality Check, however, will be coming in the form of 4th quarter earnings to either justify and accelerate the Fears or alleviate them. I expect the worst fears to be realized. In short: I expect earnings to come in much lower than expected. There are some very real pricing pressures out there and its impact will be felt on the bottom line. I will be taking a real close look at Intel's earnings on January 13 (after the bell). As you probably already know, they have been forced to dramatically cut prices on many of their chips and I don't expect the increased volume on the low end to compensate. I sure hope I'm wrong because it's the only stock I'm long. As far as Cube goes, I really don't expect its earnings to have much of a positive effect on its share price. There may be a little bit of a run up before they announce; but I would expect a sell off after they report! Again, I think we are immersed in a Bear Market here in the USA, the ramnifications of which will be confirmed by the major averages in the first half of 98. Investing long is more of a test in charachter and guts than anything else ( after one has done ones due diligence ). Sometimes a stock gets unjustifiably hit for no good reason. If you feel that is the case, just keep on buying more on the way down and transcend the Insanity! As you know, I did it with Cube last June. But we were in a Bull Market then! It was easier for Cube to bounce back at that time, then it will be now. The only way to play Cube long here is from a long term viewpoint ( although I'm sceptical here too ). I'm a big fan of George Soros, and agree with him that deflation, in the form of pricing pressures and earnings erosion will take hold of the US stock market in 98. I learned all about investing from Professor Jimmy Rodgers at Columbia where I got my CFP after my philosophy studies ( or love of wisdom- though most people view it as garbage, to their detriment ), but don't practice. I reiterate: Cash will be a great investment for the first half of 98. I am 5% long, 20% short and 75% in cash. I think Cube will hit my price target in less than 6 months. I cannot and will not give you an exact date or month. Your asking for more than technical analysis can give. Your disdain for the " almighty chart", like Andy Chen, can only hurt you, as it did him ( actually it helped to destroy him ). I see no virtue in this attitude, as Cube's price fluctuations are friendly to the " Almighty Chart". PS. For you West Coast Cyber Folks, let me tell you, last night Maria Osmond put on the performance of her life on Broadway ( in the " King and I" ). Boy does she know how to sing and act! She got the ovation of her life last night, in the Neil Simon theater. What a Ham! But she deserved all of it. Bravo!