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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DWB who wrote (1171)	12/31/1997 6:58:00 PM
From: Fernando Saldanha	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 5390

The latest issue of Forbes recommends shorting Ericsson and Nokia. They mention the fact that cellular phones are becoming cheaper, and are increasingly being given away by the service providers. Just my $.02.

To: DWB who wrote (1171)	12/31/1997 9:50:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5390

Daniel, re B-CDMA-VW, Tom worded it as though he was asking you to prove a negative and you used the simplistic slogan; "you can't prove a negative". But remember "Don't let a slogan do your thinking for you!" The skeptical view is that Ericsson is talking their book. With good reason to believe that is true. How do they benefit you ask? By getting a better deal for a cdmaOne license from Qualcomm. By delaying cdmaOne progress and therefore maintaining market share and profits. By maybe even talking themselves into doing it if they are lucky. By frightening off competitors who might try to develop a standard such as Interdigital/Siemens etc. By feeling as though they are doing something as managers to earn their money - can't be seen to be dead in the water in front of the shareholders and bosses. If they end up with no 5 MHz wide CDMA in 5 years, they can say how hard it all was, how pointless, how they got a license for cdmaOne by buying it from Maxon or one of the others so will go with cdmaOne after all as the best option, how they were wrong again just as they were about cdmaOne. People can just go on buying their GSM they will say. Tried and true they can say. They will suffer no significant fiscal problem by the wishful thinking or vaporware approach and it's possible they'll enjoy significant gains. So there is good reason to think they might be puffing hot air. Now the burden of proof. They have to prove, or you do as their agent, that they are not puffing hot air. That they have something in their hot little hands. Let's see it. What is it? Where is the report and comment on it by other parties? You are asking Tom to prove the negative by asking him to show that there isn't any B-CDMA-VW. You see the point? YOU have to prove that there IS! Prove the positive. "Don't let a slogan do your thinking for you!" Remember that slogan, grow rich, old and happy. Do you have any suggestion as to the competive advantage Ericsson's broadband CDMA might have over W-cdmaOne other than no need to pay Qualcomm a minimal royalty? [admittedly, the W-cdmaOne is vaporware too, but at least it has people who have made cdma work in the 3D].

To: DWB who wrote (1171)	1/1/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: kech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5390

Daniel- Couldn't have responded better than Maurice above. With regard to your point 1) i.e. "Microsoft had no ready competitor waiting to supplant Windows 95 when it was late." It is hard to remember today - but in the 93 time frame IBM's OS/2 was making a major effort at the Operating System space, Apple was still alive and had its supporters, and Sun was even moving closer to the desktop. In addition, Borland and WordPerfect, as well as Lotus were still viable in the applications space. No competitors? It was not until Microsoft stalled the market for 2 years and got everyone to wait that the competition disappeared.