As the Dish Turns ...
Vol. 1 Issue 22
dbsdish.com
Past Issues
Dec. 19th, 1997
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NOTE: Placement of a 'Guest Editorial' in this forum is available to any responsible individual or organization. Views expressed are not necessarly those of DBSDish.com or its sponsors.
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Well all, 1997 is just about over. This was a fantastic year for the satellite and telecommunications industry, as well as global technology. This week, our first As The Dish Turns Year in Review. This week's installment will have to satiate your appetite for informata obscura until the first week in January. So this is quite long. First some thoughts on the industry in general, and some current discussion topics from the past few columns.
It has become apparent to me that the low cost providers, who focus on moving technology forward, will flourish. This will be a game of Fixed Costs and managing overhead, while simultaneously getting the enthusiasts (like the inhabitants of DBSDISH.COM) to continue to evangelize the product within their circle of influence. With this said, I continue to be baffled by Primestar. Now, these guys are opening up almost 60 big regional offices for "sales and customer service" functions. They can't stop thinking like a cable company. Who cares where the other person on the end of an 800 number is. Their costs are going to spiral, they're going to get squeezed on operating margins, and they will falter. I applaud them for preparing for battle as a "stand-alone" public company (they will NEVER be a real stand alone company, family ties and all), but replace that scrolling program guide first, then add meaningless overhead.
Remember, DirecTV has a sewer pipe attached to the bank account of one of the worlds richest companies. USSB didn't tangle with any expensive satellites, launches, or hardware manufacturing, and Echostar is so cheap, they make their executives share rooms at Motel 6 when on the road. All these guys have been, or will be first with cool things like, D-VHS, Dolby Digital broadcasts, local channel integration, upgraded and faster hardware with better interactivity, home control integration, and the like. Hello Primestar, is anybody home. Remember, our circle of influence is huge. I'm asked 50 times a week what to buy, by friends and friends of friends. I give the same answer every time. They're ALL great, but DSS and DISH have all these 90's features, while Primestar has that scrolling cable program guide with a butt ugly remote control. The response is always the same; "Gee, why would I want that?"
Also, some brief notes on last weeks discussion of dealer/installers and the image of the DBS industry. Seems that many people have had experiences with flaky installers. One person, posting in the discussion thread, said "Whether a dealer can immediately answer every technical question of a sophisticated home entertainment customer isn't nearly as important as whether they are willing and able to gather the information and get the job done right." I couldn't agree more and thanks for the thoughtful post. Unfortunately, I still think that the DBS companies (nee, industry!) need to address the retail shortcoming in order to continue to flourish. It is still too confusing to most intelligent people. My personal perspective revolves around observing my mother, who is in her late 60's, purchasing components and software for her Pentium class PC. She then takes this stuff home, tears the cover off her machine, and starts installing hardware (I'm not kidding).
The PC industry forced itself to socialize its components and presence over the past 5 years. I realize that the DBS industry is still young, but they need to do the same kind of things, in order to socialize and legitimize an understanding of the TV distribution and programming options that exist. Cable forced a "black box" sort of mystery which we need to eradicate. It's what I call Camry Syndrome; Tons of those dopey consumer and advertiser driven car magazines said the "Camry is the best car". Listen, I don't care if you think this or not. But the problem is that it removes the requirement for thought from most decision making for the average consumer. Lemmings will be lemmings........
Finally, a brief note on Parade Magazine. Don't laugh now, but this cheesy color gossip rag from the Sunday paper has become the theater of choice for the DBS advertising battleground. Nearly every week, DirecTV, USSB, DISH, and occasionally Primestar place ads here trashing cable (a great thing) and occasionally each other (not a great thing). Besides reading the gossip, which I love, Parade has become my barometer for the state of the DBS subscriber wars. The tone of the ads keeps changing, and with it, the industry's personality. I love this stuff.
OK, It's time for the AS THE DISH TURNS, 1997 YEAR IN REVIEW. Hope you have as much fun reading this, as I did writing it. I'm sure there's something here for everyone.
Biggest Winner of the Year: Charlie Ergen - (now, now, don't get all whiny). This wiry little guy raised over a BILLION dollars, survived Rupert Murdoch's bullet, launched 3 satellites, and reached 1 million subscribers in a little over 18 months, with NO deep pockets behind him. He's also making good on the Local Channel promise. SHAZAAM! Now then, if you disagree with me on this, try doing all those things yourself at home.
Biggest Juggernaut of the Year: DirecTV - No one can stop the runaway train. These guys did everything right in 1997. Sure, they're taking some heat on picture quality, but everyone's trying to figure out compression and having mixed results. They have RCA (and many other hardware vendors) and USSB on their coattails, and their leader, Eddy Hartenstein spent lots of time beating up our legislators over their lack of backbone in confronting the cable communists. Not only does he want his business to succeed, he's a true believer!
Biggest Loser of the Year: Alphastar - Timing, poor management, NO marketing, bizarre technical and distribution strategies, and absolutely NO product differentiation killed this almost player within months of startup. Everybody got burned with this one. I wish I had the money to buy their uplink centers. Apparently, they had some of the some kickass headend technology according to several in the know dweebs I talk to. Oh well, just a few million short. Better get a second job.
Best Barn Find of the Year: Alphastar - The antique and classic car crowd LOVES to find some valuable great old car stuffed away in a barn somewhere, then pay 5 CENTS on the Dollar to buy it. Champion Holdings (whoever THEY are) bought Alphastar's assets for $4.6 Million bucks. I need to start checking those garage sales more often for a sleeper like this.
Best Web Site of the Year: DBSDISH.COM - So good, it was the ONLY site referenced by MSNBC as "Unbiased" and "An excellent Web Resource" in their article about satellite TV
Hero of 1997: John Hodgson, who continues to work and manage this site, while simultaneously working himself to the bone at a job that actually pays. Don't underestimate the amount of work it takes to maintain and improve this site. We all owe him a debt of gratitude.
Rowdiest Tech Weenies of the Year: Iridium - This army of pocket pencil protector dudes and dudettes, made telecommunications satellite history this year by launching 46 satellites in production line fashion. They even launched 2 birds from China on a Long March rocket (and hoorah, it didn't explode!) I can't wait to see who buys their $1500 cell phones.
Biggest Psycho Of The Year: Rupert Murdoch. He loves me, He loves me not. He loves me, He loves me not. He loves me, He loves me not........ To quote Ted Turner "I did not call him Hitler. Can I say exactly what I said? I said that, like the late FÂhrer, he controls the media for his own personal benefit. I fear him and I don't trust him. Rupert's idea of a better world is a world that's better for Rupert. I'm looking forward to squishing Rupert like a bug."
Biggest Incredibly Rich Coward of the Year: Rupert Murdoch. He cow towed to the Kruschevs of Cable, and allowed them to dictate his business plan for AskyB. Now, there is no AskyB, and Echostar will have the last laugh.
1997's Most Accomplished Moron: The guy who posted on our discussion board, that in two years, there will be 1000 channels on our small dish systems. This is why he refuses to get a second dish for Echo 3. Align forehead with cinder block. Ready, Aim, FIRE
Most Confused Company Of The Year: Primestar - "Are you a good witch, or a bad witch?" There was no quiet moment at this cable company in the sky in 1997. Management shake ups, ownership struggles, boardroom beatings, the Big Switch, rumors of New Satellites, the 119 degree controversy, subscriber churn, John Malone, Rupert Murdoch, Ted Turner, and a host of other twisters battered these poor folks all year. Some of it they deserved, while some they didn't.
Most Improved Concept Of The Year: Thomson Consumer Electronics for at least trying to come up with innovative solutions to deliver local channels with that antenna within a dish, even though you have to be underneath the broadcast towers for the thing to work.
Least Improved Of The Year: USSB's reputation for value, customer service and picture quality went directly into the TOILET, (do not pass go, do not collect $100). I've seen and heard more complaints about this company, than any other this year.
Best Consumer Oriented Product Of The Year: A tie between RCA's 3rd generation high end receiver, and the DISH 5000. Ladies and Gentlemen, what we have here, is a real horse race. Don't you just love REAL competition. Now just try that with those cable communists!
Best Tech Weenie Product Of The Year: California Amplifier's "Stacked" LNBF for multi receiver DBS reception. This thing delivers all 13 and 18 Volt channels through ONE coax connector, making dual LNBFs obsolete. I must have one of these things (even though I don't really need one!)
Most Ridiculous Satellite Project Name of 1997: Trimilsatcom, the new British, German and French military satellite communications systems.
Most Profound Realization Of The Year: The U.S. National Research Council put out a press release in December saying that "Space Debris" (nee JUNK), will become an major international problem during the next decade, especially for manned space flight. Heck, I'll be really ticked if some old defunct Eastern Bloc communications satellite has a collision with my TV satellite and I miss an episode of Hogan's Heroes.
Best Telecommunications Commentator of the Year: Yours truly. I do this for fun, and am willing to beat on everybody equally.
Special Thanks to the sponsor of this site for funding our digital playground
PREDICTIONS:
DSS hardware prices erode further, in order to capture market share.
DirecTV and (especially) USSB will have pricing pressure on programming from DISH and Primestar. Specifically, as DISH grows in stature and name recognition, and people start comparing, USSB's packaging of Premiums will look woefully expensive, especially when you consider all the other dribble you have to buy in order to get Multichannel HBO and Showtime. Come on boys and girls, get with the program.
Echostar will actually start to have positive cash flow from subscribers, and will have the lowest churn. With local channels, they'll become the first "Set and Forget" satellite vendor. The one thing that could hurt this effort, will be the lack of one or two popular channels per metro market, as in NON network channels.
TCI and their comrades will botch the Digital Cable rollout, at least in the beginning. But they will be successful in promoting Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt to their subscribers and may help stem the tide of defections to satellite TV to single digit percentages.
USSB will have a cathartic experience in 1998. They will realize that they have no where to go. A separate entity to provide the programming that they sell, is not needed, and only adds to the expense at the consumer level. At some point, USSB and DirecTV will have no choice but to combine certain operations, especially if programming costs keep rising
Microsoft will try (and they may succeed) to bribe their way into the Digital Cable set top box operating system market, by giving untold millions to those pitifully in debt cable concerns. I can't remember where I read this quote, so credit to whoever wrote it, but it went something like this: "I'd be very afraid, of a world where Bill Gates, John Malone, and Rupert Murdoch controlled all these parts that they're trying to control"
This is my TOTALLY Off The Wall prediction for 1998. The DTV/USSB guys jump in the game for more Atlantic and Pacific transponder capacity when they start losing market share to DISH because of the local channel thing, especially on the east coast, when they realize that the DISH soft underbelly, is their low Elevation Angle east of the Mississippi. Remember, the East is the most populous part of the US, and therefore, has the highest subscriber potential.
EPILOGUE: (I stole the epilogue thing from Quinn Martin)
AS THE DISH TURNS - HITS (things we got right)
Alphastar's self destruction:
Echostar's success and News Corps plunge into obscurity after the failed Sky venture; Many discussion posts voraciously disagreed and said that Echostar would go the way of the old hammer and sickle.
Primestar's restatement of subscriber numbers: In the May 13th issue, I argued that while Primestar should be congratulated for their Big Switch, that their subscriber counts were overstated. Right again! A few months later, they revised their sub count substantially downward. You've got to love that Hollywood accounting.
Primestar's "Cable Plus" program: I trashed this ridiculous pork barrel project on numerous occasions. This was the program where local cable operators got to sell what they had via cable, and boost the channel count to the customer by adding a Primestar dish for yet more channels. You can't get your pudding, if you don't eat your meat..............
The As The Dish Turns column on DBS Monopolies. This installment generated the most E-Mails and Discussion thread entries of any this year.
AS THE DISH TURNS - MISSES (things we got wrong)
News Corps venture with Primestar partners. I thought (and still do) that the egos and mixed priorities are a recipe for disaster between these two companies. But so far, so quiet. This ridiculous merger of sorts has yet to yield any fruit. But at least they're not fighting in public anymore. Lets see what happens as the Echostar-News Corp lawsuit heats up. Remember, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
The As The Dish Turns column on the Global Launch Vehicle Business. This was my favorite one to write this year (call it a childhood fascination with rockets). We got thousands of hits, but almost no audience participation. Guess you all are more interested in ESPN and Championship Wrestling than 100,000 horsepower rockets.
THE END
Well, that's all I could think of that was sort of entertaining. I hope we get a nice discussion thread going here. Our column here has been running for the past 9 months, and feedback has been terrific. I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions about the articles and thoughts on the industry. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, Merry Quanza, (and any others I left out) and Happy New Year to all.
And as always, Nothing is a Mystery, unless we let it be................
D. Crain
DBSDish.com Editorial Contributor
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02091 hits since December 19, 1997
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How would then CA's "stacked lnb work with a current receiver ? Current DSS recievers handle 950-1450Mhz frequencies , the Stacked LNB sends 950-2050Mhz frequencies down one coax! If the Stacked LNB requires new (special) recievers why do you think it is the product of the year?????? (why would you want one????) CA's link: www2.calamp.com John
John <DontSpamMe@HateSpam.com>
MN USA - Tuesday, December 30, 1997 at 22:46:05 (MST)
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Thanks to all, especially Dan, for all the great comments and information. I've owned an Echostar dish for about 8 months, and though I bought before I found this site, I've read nothing here to make me regret my choice. I couldn't agree more with all the people who say what a great product all DBS systems are and I'll never go back to cable (at least as long as grey market dishes such as my own remain a workable choice!). Keep up the good work! BTW, I'd love to hear from any other grey market owners about their experiences with second recievers and/or PPV. Thanks again! KDI
KDI <kireland@ken.dsd.sk.ca>
- Tuesday, December 30, 1997 at 19:27:21 (MST)
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Great job!! Loved the articles this year, keep it up. Buy anything else new? I need more of your old stuff!!
Greg
Chicago, IL USA - Tuesday, December 30, 1997 at 09:59:21 (MST)
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I would like to see something about competition in available programming. maybe someone new other than USSB or DirecTv. Sam
Sam Dennison <sammik@preferred.com>
Mt Carmel, TN USA - Monday, December 29, 1997 at 22:55:29 (MST)
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Okay you know you are going to get hit with this. Where can we get the California Amplifier "Stacked" LNBF for multiple receivers. You are right great product IF it is costs less than a Dual LNB. Love your comments, unbiased and based on facts not rumors or speculations. How about those "Echosphere" guys are they doing a great job or what? Hope your christmas was great and wish you a Happy New Year!!! Thanks Ricky
Ricky Puryear <rickyrp@eatel.net>
Prairieville, La USA - Monday, December 29, 1997 at 07:03:54 (MST)
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Your right on with the info. Been following Disk for almost a year to see if they were going to make it. Your right about the East, If someone would drop a bird over the Hudson There would be no cable. I hope I can find a supplier that is not out if Disk systems so I can cut the cable.
MIKE
HAMILTON, NJ USA - Friday, December 26, 1997 at 10:25:10 (MST)
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I would just like to say that your articles are very informative and entertaining at the same time and I look forward to a great 98!! I do have a question, can anyone tell me why you will need 2 dishes to recieve local channels from Dish Network? Are the satellites in different directions ? Will this always be the case or at some point do you see them selling a single dish that gets their national and local proggramming? What did you mean by the statement " with the exception of one or two popular stations" ? Thanks and I hope you had a great Holiday Season!!
Mark Schlageter <Diamdawg@aol.com>
Rochester, NY USA - Thursday, December 25, 1997 at 10:29:02 (MST)
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Good recap on the year that was. One thing about Parade Magazine, tho...it's a MONSTER in advertising! One of those full-color pages costs about $400,000 (on a one-time buy), so SOMEONE must be reading. A happy E* owner (who has talked 5 others into subscribing,)
BAJohnson <baj@ppmm.com>
USA - Monday, December 22, 1997 at 19:36:14 (MST)
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Thanks everybody for all this great feedback. For those interested, the Cal Amp funky LNBF is at the attached URL. www2.calamp.com
Dan Crain
USA - Monday, December 22, 1997 at 11:26:53 (MST)
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One part of your "TOTALLY off the wall" prediction rings very true in my case. I finally took the plunge into DBS at the beginning of November (RCA 3rd Generation), and all else being equal, I probably would have gone with DiSH based on price of their "Top50" vs. Total Choice/USSB Basics. However, things were not equal and it has nothing to do with sports packages--I needed the extra 9 degrees of elevation to clear a southern tree line. I love my system (a no-brainer compared to multi-outage, rural 36-channel Adelphia cable system). I just hope the time comes DTV/USSB has to compete on price, not just sports packages and (East of the Mississippi) elevation.
James <jdelius@ohio-state.com>
Columbus, OH USA - Monday, December 22, 1997 at 09:40:59 (MST)
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No mention in the article of HDTV. It's coming for real this time. Don't sleep.
james little <jamesmichaellittle@erols.com>
clinton, md USA - Monday, December 22, 1997 at 08:13:59 (MST)
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I enjoyed your year end review. The snippet about the California Amplifier "Stacked" LNBF caught my eye. Could you provied a link to more information on this product?? Thanks, -Dan
Dan <dmarkel@csi.com>
Columbus, Oh USA - Saturday, December 20, 1997 at 07:50:16 (MST)
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I've been a DISH customer for the past 7 months. When I started looking for a satellite system, I turned to your site for information I couldn't get anywhere else. Thanks for all the informative and entertaining articles. Keep up the good work!
Rick
USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 21:45:28 (MST)
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Thanks for the articles each month. I look forward to them. I have not been able to find a footprint for the DTV/USSB sats. Will these work in Mexico? Just how far south do they go?
gsimmons <gsimmons@napanet.net>
Napa, CA USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 19:27:09 (MST)
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Really enjoy this stuff. Don't see this kind of creative writing much these days. Dan's not only entertaining, he's got a perfect read on this industry. Keep up the good work. And by the way we're getting "our meat and our pudding " with his thoughtful offerings.
Dennis Reinke <reinkedb@aol.com>
EauClaire, Wi USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 17:58:57 (MST)
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I love this site! It is THE source of information on the industry. Charlie is certainly the little engine that could and Primestar is a laugher. Have a merry Chrismas!
Ron Triem <rthamlin@basec.net>
Hayti, SD USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 16:51:59 (MST)
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Let's see... last week Dan was criticizing DBS' lack of local presence and this week he's criticizing P* for opening regional offices across the country (sigh). Actually Dan, we agree quite a bit here in this excellent and entertianing column. My DBS "Man Of The Year": Charlie Ergen. You said it as well as I could ever have hoped to. My "DBS product of the Year": the E* 5K (everyone should have had a built-in tuner a long time ago). Just wait til' you see the new P* IRDs! Tuners, IPGs, UHF remotes, etc. Have a good one!
Pundit
USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 15:49:29 (MST)
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Let's see... last week Dan was criticizing DBS' lack of local presence and this week he's criticizing P* for opening regional offices across the country (sigh). Actually Dan, we agree quite a bit here in this excellent and entertianing column. My DBS "Man Of The Year": Charlie Ergen. You said it as well as I could ever have hoped to. My "DBS product of the Year": the E* 5K (everyone should have had a built-in tuner a long time ago). Just wait til' you see the new P* IRDs! Tuners, IPGs, UHF remotes, etc. Have a good one!
Pundit
USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 15:49:19 (MST)
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You....are....the MAN!!! Keep up the great job! The amount of information contained within this site helped me decide which DBS company was best for me and the family (in my case Echostar DISH - Go CHARLIE!).
J. William Ortiz <nospam4_jwortiz@instinet.com>
USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 12:50:23 (MST)
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I never miss one of these articles and this was another great one. My favorite source of information on the net be it factual news or opinion, is dbsdish.com Thanks for adding to a great year and HAPPY HOLIDAYS
ed
Cheyenne, WY USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 12:31:19 (MST)
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super job, really enjoy the articles, CONGRATS to Dan Crain, John Hodgson, and Dan Collins for making this a great place to visit!!
scott hodge
USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 12:05:35 (MST)
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Great column Dan! Though I'd also nominate for inclusion in the "moronic message category" all those incessant posts on various superstations being added to DTV. "WSBK is in!" "No it isn't" "Yes it is" "What about WPIX" "On line in January" "No in March". Good Golly Miss Molly, did ANYBODY ask DirecTV? When they said "No superstations" publicly, why not believe them??? But I have to agree, the "1000 channels per transponder" was closest I ever came to being stopped by the "potty mouth filter"! Have a great holiday, Dan! Good luck in the new house!
Dan Collins
Demares, NJ USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 11:59:55 (MST)
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Awesome summary of 1997's events. Dan should get paid for writing this stuff!
Steve <steve.lopez@gsc.gte.com>
Mansfield, MA USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 10:44:31 (MST)
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Another great article Dan! Have read it a few more times though ...... :-0
John Hodgson <jhodgson@dbsdish.com>
Phoenix, AZ USA - Friday, December 19, 1997 at 10:20:49 (MST)
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