To: IVAN1 who wrote (8227 ) 1/2/1998 10:54:00 PM From: Zebra 365 Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 31646
WSJ Ed Yardeni beats 55 other economists predictions for 1997..... He won by essentially predicting higher GDP growth and lower bond rates by the end of 1997 than any of the other 55 economists polled. WSJ, 1/2/1998, pages 2 and 40, first section <<<Eclectic Background Mr. Yardeni, who earned a Ph.D in Economics from Yale, has studied a variety of subjects over the years, including chemistry and computer science. His eclectic background, and education, are what led him, earlier than most economists , he says, to spot the powerful changes that technology and international trade would bring.He is also more concerned than most economists about the "year-2000" computer programming problem. "The problem will be a disruption of the information flow," says Mr. Yardeni. Even if only 10% of the worlds computers are not synchronized to register the year 2000, many computer systems will automatically shut down if they cannot communicate with other systems, he says. That would result in a range of problems, from airlines canceling flights to to companies not being able to automatically send bills, a situation that could retard economic growth. Although he doesn't believe that massive problems will result, Mr. Yardeni still puts the chance for a world-wide recession at 40% in the year 2000 from the dating problem. "We're talking about a global computer network that has been patched together over the past 40 years", he says. All the money in the world is not going to push back the deadline.">>> This quote is from a paper Ed Yardeni wrote in July, 1997: (from his web site, yardeni.com yardeni.com <<<Even if all the software all around the world is repaired in time, we also need to replace "embedded systems" that might not work on January 1, 2000. These are microprocessor devices that are used to control the operation of equipment, machinery, or production lines. They can be found in telephone systems, fire control systems, heating and ventilating systems, elevators, security systems, bank vaults, water and sewage systems, power stations, automated factories, airplanes, trains, buses, cars, air traffic control systems, radar systems, traffic lights, telephone switches, and satellites. They are EVERYWHERE!>>>Hmm, the guy who is ahead of the pack on predicting the markets, is also ahead of the pack on Y2K and embedded systems. What will happen to the TPRO stock price when the pack comes loping along behind? Zebra P.S. Douglas, good work on the interview to give an example (microwave oven) that quickly explains the problem to most listeners.