To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (2608 ) 1/2/1998 6:21:00 PM From: Bargain Hunter Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10309
I agree that NCs will invade the corporate marketplace first. When we try to evaluate the acceptance of NCs in the corporate marketplace vs traditional PCs, we need to remember that there are many different types of corporate usage. Initially we should expect to see NCs used primarily in situations where a company has a lot of "seats" running their own application. Examples might include for point-of-sale operators, bank tellers etc. These applications will be developed by or for the company. For these purposes the inability to run commercial Windows software is unimportant or even desirable. Some of these installations will replace older PCs or terminals; others will be new installations. As a market for Java applications develops, other companies that require a different mix of software, or are not large enough to develop software from scratch, will find NCs cost-effective. It is still too early to tell whether NCs will be accepted to the degree that the industry develops the kind of positive feedback effects necessary to make a serious challenge to the PC. Since NCs do not have local storage, and so depend on higher bandwidth connections, I expect them to be much more significant in the corporate marketplace than the home for several years. By the time that high bandwidth connections are generally available to the home, the Java application market should be more developed. If NCs have caught on sufficiently in the corporate marketplace to drive suitable application development, NCs will catch on in the home market too. In a few years I expect my ISP to store all my data, and be responsible for mirroring and backup. I'll have a home NC, but it won't be materially different from millions of others. Using a smart card, I will log on from any NC anywhere to access "my computer". My files will be protected from others by strong encryption.