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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (54)	1/2/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, I went looking on your other thread for comments about AMZN. I found none. Search sent me here. I think its a good one. I bought some puts today @$60 CTXS and VIAS sounds scary....I've only done a little research on them Jeff

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (54)	1/2/1998 7:22:00 PM
From: Carl H. Gotsch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, It would appear that your long hedges are treating you well at the moment? (Going long on MSFT at 118 ranks up there with the short calls you made last year!) If the scenario in the coming weeks unfolds as you have suggested, will you continue to hold these quality longs as hedges? Or, once you are convinced that the market has topped, do you plan to go short completely? (E.g., will you reverse your position on MSFT, INTC, etc.; alternatively, will you simply increase positions among the high fliers you have identified? Can you imagine shorting the market, e.g., shorting Spider or perhaps even buying puts on the DOW or the S&P?) Obviously, any hypothesis relies on a set of assumptions and these could be derailed by "events." However, your big-picture comments have been very helpful in providing a sense of strategy amidst all the volatility. I am currently hedged -- unfortunately without that exquisite sense of timing -- but have begun to think about how to react concretely should events play themselves out as you expect. Your comments would be appreciated. (Comments from other thread members regarding broad strategy in the face of the "Babb Conjecture" would also be welcome.) Thanks as always. Regards, Carl

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (54)	1/2/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, - Thanks for the new 1998 thread. I do not, or I should say have not, played the market from the short side for many years. I do enjoy this thread immensely, with all it's knowledgeable participants. Your comment: <<We could see some more upside, but I think we are very near a major market top.>> For many number of years I have always enjoyed following the technical as well as the fundamental aspects of the DJIA. From a technical side, the Dow 30 appears very, very near a test of a top. A 1 or 2 year chart of the DJIA shows exactly where this long-running bull market stands, and it appears to be late in the 4th quarter, and may have only one time-out left. Was October the two- minute warning? From a fundamental side, the US export market will certainly be affected by the situation in the Pacific Rim, along with difficult corporate profit level comparisons '98 vs '97. This bull is aging, as 8000-8100 becomes more difficult to attain. 4th quarter warnings, and 1-Q and 2-Q profit levels may be what it takes for the market to re-appraise it's multiple of earnings. Interest rates should reluctantly decline to the 5 1/2% area in the 1st Q (IMO). The market's imminent re-appraisal of itself could take S&P 500 from 20-22 X earnings to let's say, 15 - 17X earnings. Money flows into and out of mutual funds has been mixed (-9 bil. in Dec. period, and +~1.0 bil. this past week). "January effect" could prove to be the bull's last chance to break new ground. I feel with patience and $$ your 1998 short selections should prove fruitful. Happy New Year All, Gary