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To: Ed (IT Consultant) who wrote (8740)	1/2/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 21342

[cable vs. copper] <<< Most of the smoke and mirror arguments about infrastructure issues, regulatory issues, etc. which seem to dominate this thread are in many ways irrelevant. . . .>>> I agree 100%, as does the administrative director of GTE's Redmond trials. <<< I can see the RBOC commercials scaring the relatively uninformed consumer: "DO YOU WANT YOUR NEIGHBOR TO BE ABLE TO SEE THE WEB PAGES THAT YOU DOWNLOAD!" Whether the cable security is bullet-proof or not, I'm willing to bet Joe consumer sticks with the way he gets his Internet access now: via the RBOC infrastructure...<<<< You're absolutely right to mention RBOC commercials affecting buying patterns. Cable companies will either have to ban together to compete with their advertising budgets or go it alone, one by one. My bet's on the telcos winning. As for predictions by research firms, I've talked to the CEO of Forward Concepts and he agrees it's difficult to get numbers from telcos. On the other hand, cable companies fling theirs out with reckless abandon. Not until telcos begin deploying will there be any way to do valid comparisons. Just my take. Pat

To: Ed (IT Consultant) who wrote (8740)	1/3/1998 1:16:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 21342

<..Actually, the recently announced Ameritech plan only costs $49.95 per month during 1998 with the ADSL "modem" included (along with the one-time $150 setup fee)...> I have long been both interested and skeptical in the possibilities of ADSL. I remain both, though less skeptical. We'll see how this works in the first 6 months. Read the fine print. A seperate dedicated line... no linesplitter. And no ADSL service if a DLC is used anywhere in your loop due to crosstalk concerns with other digital services: Message 2918320 <..I think it's actually quite obvious that price is a total non-issue in the cable versus RBOC battle...> If that is true, what happened to GTE-CLEC? Get what they can while they can? This is likely the case. But the competition I refer to isn't just price. It's a combination of price, quality and reliability. Others can quote talking head blurbs about ADSL. Proof will be in the pudding. High freq signals are not naturally tame animals, though some may achieve some performance tricks under certain more rigid conditions. They tend to wonder due to field effects. Will this work to spec in mass deployment over a variety of copper plant and home wiring conditions? I remain open but skeptical. <..Most of the smoke and mirror arguments about infrastructure issues, regulatory issues, etc. which seem to dominate this thread are in many ways irrelevant...> Do you understand the arguments? Hand waving them away as "in many ways irrelevant" isn't quite the serious approach to understanding deployment hurdles. I recommend you read some of the posts and make some specific counter arguments, or at least ask some specific questions. <..I think the best way to see through the fog is to assume that BOTH the cable companies and RBOCs offer flat-rate high-speed Internet access at the same prices, approximately the same time, and at approximately the same bandwidth. Which would you choose???..> I question whether this will occur soon. But let's consider in a year or three. Which would I choose? The one with the better valued service - and my point is that ADSL is a less stable technology, requiring more fine tuning, than cable modem service. Could ADSL eventually win out? Of course, but I remain skeptical. <..Whether the cable security is bullet-proof or not, I'm willing to bet Joe consumer sticks with the way he gets his Internet access now: via the RBOC infrastructure...> Although ISDN has often been a black eye for RBOC highspeed service, I agree that for Joe consumer, the telcos have a better reputation. This is another reason why I think the telcos will delay. ADSL "inconsitencies" could adversely affect that reputation, and tax the support infrastructure's abilities - and all this in the (RBOC unfamiliar) wake of a competitive market environment. Here's hoping everyone makes a KILLING in ADSL and WSTL. I really mean that. I'm not AGAINST ADSL or WSTL. I'm just fleshing out the reasons for my current skepticism (which is OPEN to change). Steve

To: Ed (IT Consultant) who wrote (8740)	1/3/1998 1:50:00 AM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

ed-- very true. i especially liked your read on the coax security issues. as many a government and political leader has shown, its not the reality people fear, its the perception. what is the basic, underlying argument for the telcos vs. cable is financial power. the RBOCs can loose money for years and simply drive cable (at least TCI) out of the market. for every MSFT wannabe willing to pump money into a cableco, there are ten investment banks willing to loan money on a handshake to a RBOC. good luck to all, trey