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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Pittman who wrote (3938)	1/3/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10227

Ed: An update on NXTL from an Elliot wave prospective. The completion of wave 2 on December 15, 1997 at a low price of 21.75 has been confirmed by over three weeks of trading in an up pattern. My software is indicating an 87% probability that nxtl is in wave 3 of a 5th degree intermediate impulse pattern. The target price is 41.24 at the low end to 50.99 at the high end. Since wave three is the longest and strongest of the eight wave pattern, we can determine a timespan for these price targets to be achieved. Wave 1 began on March 20, 1997 at a price of 13.125 and took nine months to complete on 11/21 at a price of 28.1875. Wave 2 was relatively short as you would expect, consequently we can presume wave 3 to be complete in a minimum of nine months from December 15, 1997. The major consideration in the target prices being achieved is the systemic pressures in the overall market. Projections are made on past price history which reflect multiples that were concommitant with market conditions during that period. Should markets change and multiples rise or fall, target prices are obviously going to be affected. There is reasonable evidence to suggest that market conditions during 1998 may affect the market multiples downward, affecting target prices. Nextel may be affected more than other stocks because of its highly leveraged position, however, this may change rapidly as the company develops a positive cash flow during 98. Overall, this is a great company with its current exposure limited to the domestic economy of the US. A 2% growth rate should provide the environment for nxtl to preserve its current position in respect to its digital customers and rapidly expand those numbers as the build out of the system continues while its existing markets benefit by increased customer recognition. I am holding my position with a watchful eye on the overall market. Your times frames are in my agreement for the first pullback in a normal wave three pattern. Ken