To: Ken Benes who wrote (3942 ) 1/4/1998 10:37:00 AM From: Al Gutkin Respond to of 10227
Ken: As an accountant, I love your analysis. Emotional investor, My way. Ken: Don't take this the wrong way, mathematical statistics are what makes the world go round. Especially in manufacturing and failure analysis. However, after reading a catalog of written material and prediction systems, I kinda feel that emotion guides the market. How's this for analysis. Nextel dropped and held at the 22's in a real weak market, end of year, Asia flu, massive sell off's in what was a record year. So, I say, 22 was a very strong base for Nextel. Everyone sold that was going to sell. Since 22, Nextel has risen to 26 with low volume and small trades. This tells me that Nextel is building a stronger base. If there is profit taking, it will have very little effect. Monday the big guys are going to jump into the market. Their first choice is going to be the dogs of 1997, look at Western Digital (WDC), second, if any money is left, Nextel types (emerging companies). Logic tells me that if the Nextel volume goes up after Monday that the stock will rise, it will rise to a point at which the big guys want to take a profit. Then, the big guys will switch to another stock and run that one up. If we, the small investor only could know the points? We can call these points "low end risk point", and "high end profit taking point". That is where the Elliot wave analyzer comes in. Lets not forget, the wave analyzer is just another statistical tool, that perhaps, coupled with emotion, could be made into a better investing program. So, in that regard, you and Ed keep posting the Elliot statistics and I will add the emotional predictions. RSVP. Regards always looking for a tool, Al