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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Barracuda™ who wrote (166)	11/1/2016 5:16:08 PM
From: weatherguru	3 Recommendations Recommended By FJB lightshipsailor TideGlider Respond to of 270

Bastardi (and I agree with him) is looking for late start to winter for eastern US...similar to 2014-2015. This was the winter of deflategate, when it was warm through mid-January, then Feb 2015 was one of the coldest months ever for many cities on NE US. Conversely, the west coast will be warm and dry. However, I'm watching the Arctic right now. There is a lot of polar heating going on right now, and this heat is dissipating into the stratosphere (sudden stratospheric warming = SSW). This is good for "global cooling", because heat from the oceans is being transported poleward and leaving the troposphere. That's heat leaving the system. It's gone, not trapped by greenhouse gases. The warming of the stratosphere (SSW) precedes the development of the "polar vortex" pattern by about 2 weeks, so if this continues, the baseline of winter could start colder than expected, while the second half of winter will be much colder than expected. From here to 2020, I'd expect the winters to starting putting nails in the coffin of global warming.

To: The Barracuda™ who wrote (166)	11/2/2016 5:07:44 PM
From: weatherguru	1 Recommendation Recommended By TideGlider Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 270

Bastardi tweet. It's a follow-up to what I said about the current stratospheric warming. The Euro forecast is on the right, and the composite of 1977 & 1978 on the left. They look very similar, where what is illustrated is the 500-mb height pattern (signals atmospheric thickness, where blue regions are compressed atmospheres which equals cold air beneath). As Bastardi says, 1977 & 1978 were probably the 2 worst winters in the past 50-years. That's why what's going on in the Arctic, with all the heat dissipating into the stratosphere, is concerning me. I never really trade nat-gas from weather forecasts, but maybe I should? Gulp! Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products https://t.co/VDPx6GPjEP prem pic.twitter.com/N4EWQj8abe — Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) November 2, 2016