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Strategies & Market Trends : Why the markets will continue higher... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (335)	1/3/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 745

Hi I2: I am using arithmetic charts. Additionally, I am using three sets of technical analysis. To a lesser degree, I use fundamental analysis--eg., world events and reviews of companies' financial statements. I am trying hard to figure out what is going on. The first TA is a modified trend analysis plus a few other tidbits. This has been very good in preventing me from believing the DJI is in a bear market. (However, using this analysis, I said a few weeks ago, that the NASDAQ and OSX entered bear markets. This disagreement with the DJI and SPX made me wonder about this analysis.) This TA also is helpful in analyzing trends when I have about 5 to 10 days of data. Currently, I have a resistance line on the DJI at about 7950--this was the 7990 number from a few days ago. We have broken above it somewhat but not enough to be conclusive. This is the analysis I use to tell myself that we are or are not in a bull or bear market. Without going back to look, the trigger for a bear on the DJI should be a convincing close below 7200 or so. The second TA is plain old chart analysis. This is great stuff too. When you think like a charter, you see things that you normally would not see. This is where I noticed the triangle. If you have a four-year chart of the DJI, take a look at it. You will see that we started a consolidation phase in early August. We can move from this traingle either up or down. Down would indicate a possible reversal of the uptrend--up could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. If there is a breakout down fom the triangle, the DJI could fall a minumum of 1100 points to 6750. If it does that and falls below the current 7200 level which is a rising resistance line, it would trigger my bear market confirmation and then I would expect to see other trends. The final TA I am using is based on non-chart indicators. This has been a very good short term indicator. However, I would expect it to be unreliable in extreme market conditions. Currently, it shows a very overbought condition. That condition could even be relieved to some extent in an up market. However, it has been good at calling turns either on the day or a day early. The only problem with this indicator is that you cannot tell if the turn will amount to 100 DJI points or 500 DJI points. In the end, nothing is infallible. If it isn't working out, you just make a change. I cannot predict. I can only say, if this happens then that should happen. And while saying it, I sound like a nut.