My guess from December 11, I see no reason to back off from it now, except to say that there is likely more payroll in Q4 than my estimate allows for, so I would take my estimate as "best case" scenario. My real expectations are more like 0.20 per share.
Aside, to Tuna, I am an internist, I ran an Emergency Department in 1983-6, may have mentioned it, but have been office-based since then. I would ask that you and Bradpalm1 resume your bickering as that seemed to help the stock price get back to 40 the last time. Oh, and Vinik picking up that other 3% of the company would not hurt either <gg>.
Message 2934336
My guess as to 4th quarter results:
To keep it simple I only made a few assumptions, you may want to add or subtract your own. Don't flame me over my assumptions, I picked these but others may reasonably be made. Third quarter figures are from the 10Q.
ASSUMPTIONS:
- two milestone payments of $2mm each occurred in 4th quarter,
- G&A expenses, interest income, and tax rates are the same,
- cost of goods sold retains the same gross margin,
- 25% decrease in sales,
- all costs of moving to new facility are capitalized i.e. will show on the balance sheet, not as increased operating expenses
....................................THREE MONTHS ENDED
..........................SEPTEMBER 30, 1997.........DECEMBER 31,1997
(all numbers in thousands
except per share income)
Net Product Sales............$39,118....(- 25%)....$29,338
Milestone Revenue..................0..........................4,000
.........................................---------....................---------
Net Revenues..................39,118.......................33,338
Cost of Goods sold..........11,270.........................8,452
........................................---------....................---------
Gross Margin..................27,848.......................24,886
Operating expenses:
Research and develop........3,947........................3,947
Selling, general and
administrative...................11,507.......................11,507
.......................................---------....................---------
Total operating expenses..15,454.......................15,454
Income (loss) from operations....12,394........................9,432
Interest and other income.............1,106........................1,106
...............................................---------....................---------
Income (loss) before taxes.........13,500.......................10,538
Income taxes..............................2,241........................1,749
................................................---------....................---------
Net income (loss).....................11,259.......................$8,789
...............................................=======..................=======
Net income (loss) per common
and equivalent share..................$ 0.31......................$ 0.24
Shares used in the computation
of net income (loss) per share.....35,772......................35,772
Zebra |
