To: Paul Engel who wrote (43731 ) 1/3/1998 8:57:00 PM From: gnuman Read Replies (4) | Respond to
Paul Engel. That's the weirdest harangue I've seen you post . First of all, if you actually read what I posted you'd be aware that I stated Intel can compete, and gave illustrations. You keep missing the point. Some of us investors happen to be interested in what's going to happen to Intel's stock price. You state that Intel is driving the price down, but some believe, including many analysts, that the competition is the fundamental driving force behind the steep learning curve. I made the point that if Intel is going to realize historical revenues, earnings and margins on PC CPU's, I think the market must convert 100% to PII, and quickly. To illustrate, if we arbitrarily assign $20 Billion 1998 revenues to the PC CPU, (which would keep it about flat to 1997), and if Intel captures 80 million units in 1998, (about 80% share), the ASP FOR THE YEAR must be $250. I think you have to admit that P55C will be a heavy drag on ASP's. Therefore I conclude that a quick conversion to PII is necessary to meet the ASP objective, and by implication the revenue and earnings objectives. Yes, I know there are Servers and lap-tops that will use higher ASP product, but the volume of desk top PC's will be the key determining factor. As for Intel's flawless historical execution, whatever happened to the Microma, (digital watch), ASIC and memory system divisions? Not that I'm knocking Intel, they were smart enough to abandon these industries as soon as they realized the folly.
