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To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (5159)	1/3/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

>>>because it would be disastrous for Japan to accomplish this by raising their own rates.>>> Tom, I think it is not desirable, but it is disastrous not to, once Yen breaks down decisevely.. Japanese no longer can afford to issue warning and watch.. That what Rubin has to contend now: either Nikkei collapses and Yen slides to 14o-150 level or something needs to be down to avert it. Japanese run-out of ammunition except grenade strapped to their belt.. And their interest is no longer Rubin interest.. I submit events are out of Gvn control. I do not know what surprise Mr. Yen was talking about ,.. but he was totally rebuffed by markets.. Buy gold? Raise interest? Give every American free Sony with Honda purchase?

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (5159)	1/3/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116759

>>I wonder how a cut in the prime rate will be reflected at the long end of the yeild curve.>>> As Terry Rose pointed once "A picture worse a thousand words" bloomberg.com The curve will get from almost flat to inverted!

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (5159)	1/3/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116759

deflation in their equity markets,real estate.domestic goods since a lot of consumers will be without the good jobs..less demand..lower prices..inflation in their foreign debts and imported goods. deflation here because of the whole competitive advantage of the cheaper currency and now even cheaper labor... no protectism in sight..we are all now tied to the global market.. J. Carson who I respect out of all the economists predicted long bond up to seven percent by year close. I think Japan has to devalue their yen..how else can they compete? in the process of devaluing it, their debt will be greatly reduced because of all the bad loans..okay..their foreign debt will inflate even more but they own a lot of US paper that maybe would compensate. How many foreign businesses will lay off workers on this side of Atlantic..more deflationary..how many companies will send manufacturing to far east...more deflationary... the whole world will have to reinflate...to wipe out all the bad debt.. most Americans have probably refinanced their homes..banks should lose money there...banks have to show losses from meltdown in Asia.. technology has to slow down now from less demand besides putting money into software fixes for year2000.... Think that is why Clinton just talked about funding for medical research to try to heat up another sector and keep the market bubbling Hope you had a lovely holiday! bobby (I hope other people add to the list..I think I missed something in your post because you knew all that..what did I miss?)