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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (18514)

1/18/2017 5:29:02 PM

From: John Pitera

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
roguedolphin

Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 33421

So where are we with the USD??

The first chart is the 45 year Monthly log chart...... we have definitely taken out the downtrend line from the 1985 all time high in the USD.

the balance of the evidence appears to be in the Bullish camp.

We have the .618 retracement from the July 2001 high of 121.21 down to the 2008 low of USD 71.33 it's at about 102.32..

The Daily USD has rebounded back to it's 50 DMA.... I would expect to see to see it close back to the north side of the 50 dma by the end of the week.. The USD also rebounded above it's .236 retracement from it's May 3rd 2016 low at 91.88 to its Jan 3rd 2017 high of 103.81.

The Slope of the 200 dma is positive and the slope of the 50 dma is still climbing at a 45 degree rate.

10 Year USD Monthly Log scale chart with Fibs for greater detail on where the .618 of the 2001 top to the 2008 bottom is.. as well as a better view of the .382 retracement of the entire decline from the 1985 high of 164.72 down to 2008 low of 71.33. which is at 106.79..

Notice that the USD Monthly Bars have been above the upper Bollinger Band for the past 3 months... this price strength suggests that we should see a higher high in price with the bars staying within the BB's prior to this bull move ending.

An additional item that we have used for years and may date back to Edwards and MaGee of longer is that when a market breaks out above horizontal resistance it will move 3% above the breakout area, then pulls back to the area of the breakout "the market always gives you a second chance--- John Rice Citibank Trader and my old boss"

The market then moves higher in the direction of the break out in a bull market....

Also looking at the USD 10 year weekly index shows that the RSI Moving average model is in a solid buy mode with the blue 9 Period nicely above the 45 ema and the full stochastic model has relieved it's overbought condition. Additionally the RSI and the price rate of change oscillators have yet to show a price momentum divergence which would be indicative of topping action.

This is a continuation of the bull thesis that I have had since the summer of 2015. I actually did get the initial top in the USD at 100.71 that occurred on March 17th 2015 the day after it occurred due to moving average % and sentiment extremes.

so thank you Sir you got me to do some additional work that I needed to get done.... and we shall see what the USD does..... It will not hang around at this level for long it will either move out to the upside towards 106.79.... or fall back below the 100 and change area and get back into it's rectangular quagmire box.

John

To: John P who wrote (17200)	8/26/2015 11:00:06 PM
From: John P	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 18603

20 Year Monthly Chart of USD index demonstrates that we are definitely going higher over the coming 6 to 8 months. A few key points The USD was boldly moving above the rising Bollinger band with each Green Elder Impluse Monthly Bar on the way up to the high just over 100 in mid march. The buck needs to go up to 102.50 at a minimum to make a high that would not be outside of the BB 20,2% Second the Massive overbought and huge momentum RSI readings means that on this monthly chart we have to see the USD up in the 102.50 ---- 105 area over the next 6 months. Three the RSI has the 5 period MA in buy mode versus the 55 month EMA and the stochastics are just in a neutral range. The Elder Impulse Bars are showing consolidation Blue bars.... no bearish Red. I was looking for the USD to have a meaningful correction on March 18th a day or so after it registered it's 2015 high for the year on March 17th @ 100.71 The USD. Had a potential to have an medium term top to longer term top when the $USD registered it a reading of $100.71 yesterday . It is super over extended over it's 200 DMA and 50 WMA. The Financial Markets are setting us up for a significantly profound period of major instability between now and Sept 28th. 2015. Message 29989344 with crude near $40 I was forseeing a break back into the $30's... I should have been brighter about that .... If I'm looing for USD weakness and crude is denominated in USD's then..... USD weakness should bring a relief rally to WTIC , John

John