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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rayrohn who wrote (18523)

12/15/2016 1:07:04 PM

From: John Pitera

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Respond to of 33421

Hi Ray, I agree with your assessment, a small modification in that I would look for a 12 big figure break down from 104 to 92...... over coming months.

Crude since May of 2016 has been in an ascending triangle from a low of $39 to a horizontal top of $52....
We should see a bullish breakout that will move us over the coming couple of quarters up to the 200 week MA at $69 to $70

Message 30891055

what is interesting is that there is really no talk in the market about the EUR getting to parity with the USD...

In early 2015 that was all the talk is that the EUR would reach or test the 100 level with the USD and since it was so widely talked about it obviously did not happen. Now almost 2 years later, people are comfortable with it holding 1.05 and don't realize the magnitude of the coming decline.

There is as big a move that has been occurring in the JPY down and now the EUR which had gotten historically way out in front of the JPY on the Crossrate will catch up to the downsde.. These moves are funding the historic rally in the US stock market, which will accelerate with the EUR breaking down and as Mad1 and many have noticed Gold and Silver have been plummeting lower ever since Gold break the daily descending triangle back on Oct 4th.

Message 30772914

back in early December I was referring here to Gold and Silver being a wipe out

Message 30869049

the magnitude is ending up being similar to the very large % decline in the spring of 2013....

All of these moves are driven by the historically huge and expanding interest rate differentials in favor of the USD....... where the US has much higher interest rates than the rest of the world. There is a very logical underlying basis for the global flow of funds.

So Global macro money managers, Sovereign wealth funds, Re Insurance and insurance firms and all types of pension fund managers, foundations and endowments etc are selling long duration bonds and moving to equities and getting into higher yielding shorter duration debt.

The EUR should over the next 3-6 months have a measured move down to 92 which will make manufacturing and exporting highly competitive for Europe

We have to take market developments a step at a time as they unfold and try not to extrapolate any given market too far into the future in a vacuum: where we are assuming that other global currency, global debt and equity markets will do and instead, what the intricate dance that evolves as capital effortlessly prints its way around the world in the never ending battle of "Risk vs. Reward"

The Trump election has so far proven to be one of the very rarest types of "Swans"... the "Green Swan"
at least for US equities and hopefully for economic growth.... The US is the best positioned to reignite global growth.

Message 30836673

John