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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (24957)	12/15/2016 4:53:40 PM
From: rogermci®	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41018

Hi John. Agree with your analysis on oil.. Difficult for me to make a long term secular bull case for crude. Seasonality forces will kick in late January/February. One might make an argument for a 60 handle this spring, but I think that would mark the top of a trading range that might last for a while. My favorite stock that I feel acts as a proxy for crude is CLR. It has a good record of telegraphing change of direction. The price has quadrupled from it's February low and me thinks it's due for a breather. .

To: John Pitera who wrote (24957)	12/16/2016 10:39:09 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41018

Hi John, I think the REIT's are a good play. They all have large debt in general - which makes them have a knee jerk reaction when bond yields move higher. They then seem to settle down after providing a good opportunity to sell puts on them. Some are smaller andd more conservtaive with a dividend payout that is easily achieved. I have positions in: WSR sold the March 12.50 puts. @ .71 net purchase price of 11.79 monthly div = .095x12 = 1.14/11.79 =9.67% yield CLDT february 17.50 puts @ .74 net purchase of 16.76 monthly div = .11 x 12 = 1.32/ 16.76 - 7.88% OHI June 16 30 puts @ 3.22 net purchase 26.78 Qtrly dividend = .61 x 4 = 2.44/ 26.78 = 9.1% The big famous dividend Aristocrat that I sold a fat call on is HCP. They made a bad blunder and bought into some highend Skilled Nursing Facilities that are being beat up wit smaller medicare payments. They are in the process of spinning off the health facilities much like VTR did and will more than likely be forced to cut the dividend. Huge retirement ownership of this stock when and if the dividend is cut - there will be mass selling. At that point I will re enter the stock as there medical building and commercial office space is first class and solid. First round of buying will be after new dividend is stated and the yield on purchase price exceeds 6 %. double down at 7.0 % and 7.5%. Quietly waiting up on that dead branch awaiting the slaughter - LOL I think OPEC will hold there agreement sloppily - their ace card is demand growth. Once they have the excess inventory sold off - they'll bend arms and jaw bone. We in the USA should enjoy lower prices with a new infrastructure tax that goes into a permanent fund with the returns from the fund adding to the existing funding that exists today. The more oil we consume the bigger the trust fund grows. Supplement the trust with a big tarriff on non North American oil/ gas/liquids (mexico Canada and the USA) Bob

To: John Pitera who wrote (24957)

12/16/2016 2:00:43 PM

From: Runomo™

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41018

What crude needs to do is a monthly close above the long term blue colored trendline shown below. It is currently just above it with two trading weeks left in the month.
however the technical action so far is looking good IMO because the breakdown last year
from a well tested easy sloping long in duration trendline should have put the final nail in the
death spiral coffin. Instead we have a return back and a potential recapture, on humongous volume, to the area of the long term breakdown implying whatever happened over the past year plus was most likely a false move coupled with dire negative sentiment "death spiral talk".
Technically false moves get reversed strongly once they have confirmed.