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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (18544)12/23/2016 4:15:58 PM
From: John Pitera3 Recommendations

Recommended By
Jon Koplik
richardred
The Ox

  Respond to of 33421
 
DJIA 1000 was an area we came with in 5 points of in early 1966 after a very long secular bull market. It took 8 year to first be able to break above Dow 1000 and then another almost 9 years to decisively break above it and not look back in late 1982 This was with 2 two head fakes above 1000 with bear markets occurring afterward.



The 1964 to 1984 Dow weekly



After another 18 year very long secular bull market the DJIA breaks 10K in 1999 and then goes back and forth through it a number of times in subsequent 5 years, before moving significantly above it to 14198 and then the liquidation Great Financial Crisis dragged it all the way back 6469 in early March of 2009.



cnbc has been doing an almost hour long piece with the perspective that the average investor has missed the Trump rally, they did an on the street interviews with people who were not invested..

That's a big reason why when the DJIA closes over 20K it will get the "Man on the street" thinking about getting more involved in the market.

The Dow is has this funky .1495 divisors of the price move of each dollar in the 30 stocks. And no professionals and few analysts use the DJIA as the metric for market expectations, but it has that historical ring to the general public... and 20K is a very big round number.

So historically these round numbers are sticky points. and have been the area's of tops.

Is this time the JOKER in the DECK where the DJIA is able to get above the Dow 20K level and it and the broader US indices like the SPX, Nasdaq, RUT go significantly higher as the central bankers decade long liquidity pump gravitates to US and Japanese stocks assets (which is a very contrary place to be) or do we see some strength in Q1 and then move into a consolidation mode for the balance of the year.
Among some of the most seasoned Market Wizards, Global Macro money managers the "cognoscenti" opinion seems to be about split down the middle, which is healthy and I would say leads to the bull side.... we are probably set up for a classic 7th year in the decennial pattern with a really rambuctious wild rally higher into Oct and then a big downside break... think 1957, 1967, 1987, 1997 (thai Bhat pac-rim crash) and 2007.

perhaps DJIA 25K will be more of a level that acts as a multiyear barrier the way the the 1000 level did in 1966 and after that.

There are way too many real world variables and possibilities in terms of Brexit and Brexit being the opening salvo of more and more countries voting to leave the EU and the EUR currency.... how quickly do global interest rates rise, How aggressive is congress in fighting the debt ceilings which would work against stronger stock performance, What happens with China's debt bubble... does it go into overtime and inflate more; geopolitical extreme black swans... The possible GREEN SWAN of a Republic administration that is super business friendly and creates powerful economic growth...that is an outcome that is not widely viewed as possible... Their does seem to be an exceptional amount of cash and assets that can be reallocated to US equities.

JJP



To: John Pitera who wrote (18544)1/1/2017 3:03:05 AM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Hawkmoon

  Respond to of 33421
 
Trump as Lady Gaga
Trump is a political performance artist, challenging what we think is normal.

by DANIEL HENNINGER
Dan.Henninger@wsj.com
Dec. 7, 2016 6:47 p.m. ET

It is 12:13 a.m. and the president-elect of the United States, who has just named retired Marine Gen. James Mattis as his Secretary of Defense, is watching “Saturday Night Live.” Alec Baldwin is impersonating him. The president-elect tweets: “Just tried watching Saturday Night Live - unwatchable! Totally biased, not funny and the Baldwin impersonation just can’t get any worse. Sad.”

Twenty minutes later, from the SNL set, Alec Baldwin tweets he’ll stop if the president-elect will release his tax returns.

How is it possible that a man who selects Jim Mattis for Defense on Thursday can be in a tweet smackdown with Alec Baldwin Sunday morning?

The answer is coming into view. Donald Trump is Lady Gaga.

He is a performance artist. (this is the master statement of the article)

He is challenging what we think is normal—first for a presidential campaign and now for the presidency.

He’s Andy Warhol silk-screening nine Jackie Kennedys. You can’t do that. Oh yes he can. Currently Donald Trump is silk-screening American corporations: Ford, Carrier, Rexnord, Boeing.

Andy Warhol called his studio The Factory. Reince Priebus, Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon are now in Donald Trump’s Factory. Like everyone else, they’ve got to figure out what’s coming next.

Lady Gaga once talked about the doubters in an interview: “They would say, ‘This is too racy, too dance-oriented, too underground. It’s not marketable.’ And I would say, ‘My name is Lady Gaga, I’ve been on the music scene for years, and I’m telling you, this is what’s next.’ And look . . . I was right.”

Who does that sound like?

In “The Art of the Deal,” Donald Trump described what he was up to: “I play to people’s fantasies.”

Anti-Trumpers will say: Precisely. We can’t have a performance artist as president of the United States.

That’s irrelevant now.

In four years it may be possible to say that making a performance artist president was a mistake. But that will only be true if he fails. If the Trump method succeeds, even reasonably so, it will be important to understand his art from the start.

So far, the media and the comedians are stuck in pre-Trump consciousness (seth Meyers, and James cordon) the preponerence of UK faux comedians who will not be here in 2 years.. You’d think the comedians would get it, but getting laughs from left-wing audiences has taken a toll.


the CBS shills.... such as the inheritor of letterman's show.... is a shill... not fun

Consider two Trump tweet performances:

Jill Stein commences her preposterous recounts and the press analyzes the threat to the Trump electoral-college victory.

Suddenly, the president-elect tweets that “millions” voted illegally for Hillary. The press pivots from Jill Stein to prove, across several days, that the Trump claim is “bogus.”

Like any smart performance artist, he’s made the strait-laced audience part of his act.

One day later, @realDonald Trump tweets: “Nobody should be allowed to burn the American flag - if they do, there must be consequences - perhaps loss of citizenship or year in jail!”

Now he’s the Queen of Hearts. Off with their heads! And like terriers chasing another tossed ball, the media ran down every case on the subject to prove, “court rulings forbid it.”

That is true. The courts forbid it. But if it is important to comprehend a president’s mind and intentions, it will be pointless if the media does nothing more the next four years than consider its job done if it microscopically fact-checks and flyspecks everything Donald Trump tweets.

Donald Trump treats the truth as only one of several props he’s willing to use to achieve an effect. Truth sits on his workbench alongside hyperbole, sentimentality, bluster and just kidding. Use as needed.

Another important distinction: Performers merely entertain. Performance artists challenge, subvert and alter. They may be slightly crazy, but they’re crazy serious, though usually a little unclear about where they’re going.

Donald Trump’s voters believed the country was going in the wrong direction—the most powerful metric in the election. They thought he was the one person who shared their sense of wrong direction. These voters wanted to move from point A (Obama) to point B (post-Obama), and they were willing to see the facts bent if indeed they could arrive at point B, such as an improvement in their economic well-being or escape from the politically correct alt-left.

Treating the presidency as political performance art has multiple liabilities. An initially exciting performance can turn tedious. I’ve talked to Trumpians, die-hards from day one, who think the tweets worked in the campaign but not for the Oval Office. An overworked exclamation point loses its meaning!

Will Donald Trump, like Madonna, be driven to ever more outrageous public performances (“Cancel order!”) to keep the world’s attention trained on his persona? From Beijing to Washington, he’s got the world’s attention.

Some of America’s most charismatic presidents were also public performance artists who challenged and overturned status quos: Abraham Lincoln,Franklin Roosevelt,John Kennedy,Ronald Reagan. All of them knew that a successful American presidency would be measured by a totality greater than their public performances.

Write henninger@wsj.com.