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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dave Triplett who wrote (6287)1/5/1998 1:46:00 AM
From: Greg Higgins  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14162
 
Dave Triplett writes: what is the math relationship between the Jan 10 bid (2 5/16) and ask (2 1/2) of today and that of a different price tomorrow. For instance if IOM should go from 12 3/8 to 12 3/4 tomorrow who or how is the new bid and ask figured out on the new stock price?

Bids and asks per tick in the stock are generally figured out (within a range) the night before.

From McMillan:

Theorectical call price = xN(d1) - se**(-rt)N(d2)

where d1 = [ln(x/s) + (r + 1/2v**2)t]/[vt**(1/2)]
and d2 = d1 - vt**(1/2)
ln is the natural log function
N() is the cumulative normal density function
v is annual volatility
x is the current stock price
s is the strike price
r is the interest rate (annual)
t is the time to expiration in years
** is the exponentiation operation

Volatility is computed using
v = [Sum_i=1_to_n (Xi-Xbar)**2/(n-1)]**1/2
where Xi = ln(Pi/Pi-1), Pi being the closing price on day i
and Xbar is the average of the Xi over n days.

Once computed, v*260**(1/2) is annual volatility.

This is called the Black Scholes Model (or formula) and is generally valid on european style options on a stock paying no dividends.

For your example, however, you can assume that an in the money call will always have an ask >= S-K where S is the current stock price and K is the strike price. If the ask is very close to S-K, then one one the following is true: the option expires shortly or the option is likely to be exercised early.

For out of the money calls, pricing is much more difficult, mainly because a market maker can manipulate the bid / ask to achieve any desired result.

Besides McMillan, Cox & Rubenstein and Rajna Gibson are all sources of information about option pricing models.