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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (73975)	1/3/2017 12:10:45 PM
From: Brumar89	1 Recommendation Recommended By TimF Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86355

Exxon’s 2040 Outlook: Fossil Fuels Aren’t Going Anywhere by Oil & Gas 360 - Dec 30, 2016, 2:12 PM CST Gas, Nuclear, and Renewables Will Grow the Most, in that Order The global energy mix will not look that much different for oil and gas in 2040, according to Exxon Mobil’s (ticker: XOM) recently released 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. (Click to enlarge) Source: Exxon 2017 Outlook for Energy Both the middle class and world GDP is expected to double in the next 15 years, accelerating demand for air conditioned homes, cars, and appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and smart phones. Non-OECD nations, particularly China and India, will experience the most economic growth, driven by urbanization. Oil is expected to remain the world’s primary energy source, driven by demand for transportation fuel and feedstock for the chemical industry. Plastics and other advanced materials provide advantages to manufacturers and consumers including energy efficiency gains. Natural gas is projected to grow the most of any energy type, accounting for a quarter of all demand by 2040. Coal will remain important but will lose a significant amount of its share as the world transitions to cleaner energy. The World Electrifies Increasing electrification will drive the growth in global energy demand over the next 25 years, 55 percent of energy demand growth coming from power generation to support increasingly digital and plugged-in lifestyles and electricity will grow the most of any sector. (Click to enlarge) Source: Exxon 2017 Outlook for Energy Natural gas demand will increase significantly, with the fuel gaining share across all sectors due to its abundance and flexibility. Different sectors will use different types of energy based on their economic supply options and suitability to different purposes. A wide variety of energy types will support electricity generation, with gas, nuclear, and renewables all increasing their share in the mix to offset the decline of coal. LNG Critical to Supplying Natural Gas Net Importers Evolving natural gas supply and demand will also cause gas trade balances to shift, with North America, Russia, and the Middle East being net gas exporters by 2040. (Click to enlarge) Source: Exxon 2017 Outlook for Energy Asia Pacific will continue to be the largest gas importer despite growing production, with regional gas demand doubling by 2040. Demand in Europe will also grow as regional gas production there declines. Unconventional gas is expected to account for 33 percent of total gas production by 2040. To meet increasing demand, LNG export supplies will need to diversify, with major new exports expected from the U.S., Canada, Australia, and East Africa. North America is expected to become the largest exporter due to growth in unconventional resources. The LNG market is expected to remain highly competitive due to abundant resources and many potential exporters, so lower cost supply sources will have the advantage. Liquids Demand Grows 20 percent ; Don’t Forget About Conventional Demand for liquids, covering NGLs and all liquid fuels, is anticipated to grow 20 percent through 2040, with Latin America, Africa, Russia, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific accounting for the largest increases. Chemical demand is expected to increase in all regions. (Click to enlarge) Source: Exxon 2017 Outlook for Energy As with gas, Europe and Asia are expected to account for the majority of net imports, with the U.S., Middle East, and Russia remaining major exporters Production from tight oil, deep water, and oil sands reserves will grow to account for over 25 percent of the liquid supply, with the U.S. producing the majority of all tight oil in 2040. However, continued investment in conventional crude and condensate will also be required to offset the decline in existing fields. Exxon estimates that continued demand for liquids through 2040 will require upwards of $450 billion to meet demand. A lack of investment will cause liquids production to decline steeply and 80 percent of the current new liquids supply is needed to offset natural declines. By Oil & Gas 360 oilprice.com

To: Brumar89 who wrote (73975)	1/4/2017 8:48:29 AM
From: Eric	Respond to of 86355

Tony Heller’s Snow Job: Part 2 Posted on January 3, 2017 \| Tony Heller has replied to my previous post. I don’t think he likes me very much. Apparently he doesn’t believe that increasing temperature can increase the amount of water vapor in the air, or that can affect the amount of snowfall. Perhaps he should learn some science. He also seems to think that “winters are getting colder in the mid-latitudes.” Perhaps he should look at some temperature data for winters in the mid-latitudes. But wait … Tony believes that the temperature data sets are fraudulent. He seems to think that a lot of climate data is fraudulent. In fact, the header of his blog contains the word “fraud” or “fraudulent” ten times. He only mentions “racketeering,” “garbage,” “collusion,” “corruption,” and “scam” once each. I think he has some issues. Interesting is what he has to say about year-round snow cover: Then Tamino tries to claim that for the whole year snow cover is decreasing. This also is complete nonsense. Snow cover has increased substantially since late 1980’s and early 1990’s — and North American snow cover is about the same as it was 50 years ago. Saying so don’t make it so. Let’s estimate the trend in yearly-average snow cover anomaly, to get some real evidence whether it’s going up or down. If we start at the beginning of the data, well … sorry, Tony, it’s going down. The decline even shows “statistical significance.” But Tony wants to start later, in the “late 1980’s and early 1990’s” somewhere. He picks that because, to him, it looks like what he wants. That’s a textbook example of cherry-picking. We’ll let the baby have his cherry. Here’s the estimated trend rate, with error bars, for every start year from 1966 (when the data begin) through 2000: There are a few years in the late 1980s when the estimate rises above zero, but you might notice that none of them achieves statistical significance. The fascinating thing is that even if one of them did, that’s still not sufficient evidence because you have to take into account the multiple testing problem. I’ve mentioned this before. Alas, that’s probably too much for a simpleton to deal with. But, as I said, none of them achieves “statistical significance” anyway. The only reliable conclusion from these data is the overall decline. Which means: maybe it’s time for Tony Heller to call the data “fraudulent.” What’s most interesting, absolutely fascinating, truly spellbinding, is what Tony Heller has to say about how snow cover has changed during the spring and summer months. What pearls of wisdom flow from his pen? What insightful conclusions follow? What does he say about that, you wonder? … Nothing. For those interested in some actual science, here’s how monthly northern hemisphere snow cover has changed over time, for all 12 months of the year: And, for those interested in rates of change, here they are for all 12 months of the year. Draw your own conclusions. I’m sure Tony Heller will. tamino.wordpress.com My comments: I do get a kick out of the two Tony's. They would get laughed off campus at any university. Eric