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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katelew who wrote (624705)	2/5/2017 7:06:18 AM
From: skinowski	3 Recommendations Recommended By Katelew lightshipsailor Mrjns Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793838

Russia made its move in Crimea right after the Maidan overthrew the pro-Russian government in Ukraine. I'm sure this wasn't a sudden decision - quite clearly, it was a contingency plan prepared in advance. My guess is - they probably expected that the new revolutionary government would quickly make a deal with NATO, and Russia's Crimean bases - with an access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean - would be lost to them forever. I think the Crimean referendum was legitimate - the vast majority of the population is either Russian, or native Russian speakers. An opportunity to join a nation with the GDP per capita several times higher than that of Ukraine also must have been an inducement - much higher pensions, benefits, etc. The EU would never accept Ukraine. The Euros were worried for decades what would happen to their jobs once they have to compete with the inexpensive "Polish plumber". They ain't seen nothin' yet - there is no way Polish plumbers could compete with the Ukrainian guys, accustomed to work for much less. Instead of becoming a pawn - and a victim - in the game played by greater powers, Ukraine would be far better off remaining neutral, trying to get help from both sides - and working on getting their own house in order - fighting corruption, improving the economy, etc.

To: Katelew who wrote (624705)	2/6/2017 7:14:49 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Recommended By Triffin Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793838

<<what is your thinking on the Crimean election and annexation? >> It looked as reasonable as Brexit, Scottish independence from England, or English independence from Scotland, or Scotland joining the EU on its own, or Quebec dumping Canada. Crimeans were willing sellers and Russia a willing buyer. Maybe it was slightly less than perfect, as was the Scottish vote, and lots of elections, but it was near enough for government work. Putin is not trying to take over Ukraine, or even part of it. He wants a settlement with some autonomy for the eastern parts. <<Also, what is your thinking on Ukraine? Is Putin actually trying to annex the whole of Ukraine? If so, would it be by military seizure or by swaying popular vote? >> Similarly, Israel didn't want Gaza - just a bundle of trouble. Same with Russia taking over Kievans. But Israel does want the West Bank and Jerusalem and other crucial components gained when successfully defending themselves against genocidal attack by surrounding Moslems. Russia does NOT want atomic bombs arrayed along their southern border by "NATO" aka USA. Or tanks. They would prefer the whole of Ukraine to be neutral but that's not going to happen given how many Nazi-style people there are in the west. That's laughable: <<I keep reading that Putin is intent on re-creating the old Soviet block >> So is the idea that "Putin is Hitler" - Hitler took over the north of Africa, all of Europe outside Spain and UK [near enough] and set out to take over USSR too. He also largely achieved genocide against Jews - and mass murdered a lot more besides. USA allies such as Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egypt, Palestinians are interested in genocide against Jews or at least their total submission to Allah and Islamic jihad. Putin is quite the opposite. After 15 years of being the boss, Putin has paperworked Crimea back into Russia and fiddled with a bit of Georgia. Total land area - minuscule. It's hard to see on a map of Russia. At that rate of "recreating the USSR", he will need a 1000 Year Reich to get a tiny fraction of what Hitler took over in his blitzkriegs. He doesn't have 1000 years. He doesn't have 100 years, or even 50 years. Apart from his mortality, bigger things such as burgeoning Cyberspace will take over. Cyberspace will reward countries that go along with the takeover. They have the old anti-USSR mindset and are subject to the mlitary industrial complex: << Why is the blame put on Russia? What does Europe gain by supporting Ukraine, a poorly governed country that offers little in the way of trade?>> The so-called "free" world wants to get weapons arrayed along Russia's southern border the same as they have along the north eastern. Iran, which is full of hydrocarbons, does not want nuclear electricity, they want atomic bombs to obliterate Israel. <<I've read that some of the powers that be are alarmed because Putin is aligned with Iran. But the US, France, and I think Germany were the main forces behind lifting the Iranian sanctions and allowing Iran to pursue nuclear power generation. All of them also encourage the resumption of trade and investment in Iran. So what causes the mistrust of Putin's alliances with Iran? >> The proof that it's bombs Iran wants and not electricity is that they plan a pipeline for gas to power stations in India across hostile territory which will incur tolls and delivery risk, instead of burning the gas in their own power stations with India building nuclear power stations. People seem unable to understand that logic. Plan A = hydrocarbons burned in power stations in Iran, nuclear reactors built in India cost to Iran = 4 power stations Plan B = hydrocarbons burned in India nuclear reactors built in Iran cost to Iran = nuclear power stations pipeline to India risk of the pipeline being blocked and payments for gas stopping trade with India being reduced [since India will have less electricity when the pipeline is blocked] being bombed by Americans or Israel or Saudi Arabia or Europeans Plan A = everyone happy Plan B = everyone unhappy [apart from warmongers] The mistrust of Putin's alliance with Iran is because the alliance is opposition to Israel's existence and Saudi Arabia and other USA allies. Iraq received big loans from Russia which were abrogated after the 2003 war [rightly so as Iraqis should not have to pay Russia because Saddam borrowed heaps for his own self-aggrandisement]. I doubt there's much of an alliance with Iran - just an opportunistic situation such as mutual support for Assad but disagreement on Israel. If USA/Israel destroy Iran's oil production, that's a good thing for Russian hydrocarbon sales. Mqurice