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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MCsweet who wrote (59277)	3/24/2017 9:57:19 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

I agree MCsweet, I am not interested in retail myself but was curious why ANF didn't seem to be in consideration for others interested in the sector. As I mentioned I have a connection with my men's wear designer nephew, so do follow the company. (they treat him quite well by the way). Still on vacation in Daytona, talk when I get back to cold Vermont(g)--I see it is snowing back home! (I did pick up a little TGP @ 16.875 earlier)

To: MCsweet who wrote (59277)	3/24/2017 12:34:18 PM
From: richardred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

I can't disagree with you about your concerns in the sector. Plus the current untimely consensus in the retail clothing sector. IMO stores taking part effectively in the favorable fashion trends is hard to predict. My recent buys are not mainly for dividend Yield, but for potential stock appreciation from here over time. I'm betting these companies can make the transition in effectively expanding their on-line business. While also keeping their existing business fresh with better YOY quarterly comparisons. Taking advantage of weak competitors closings helps to. I still can be wrong like Buffett was on his initial Berkshire Hathaway purchase. P.S. Time & Change- I remember Warren Buffett saying Buying the textile mill Berkshire Hathaway was a mistake. However as time pasted he ended up acquiring quite a few apparel companies. Although not a Value and not of big scale. Duluth Holding's(DLTH)sure seems they can currently compete effectively with Fruit of the Loom.

To: MCsweet who wrote (59277)	3/24/2017 8:37:10 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78476

"To me, retail has been like airline stocks used to be for Warren Buffett -- value traps. " I've recently been thinking about the same with retail. Retail can suck you in with valuation, but big trends are working against them. So many conference calls talk about declining mall traffic, and ultimately the transformation of malls seems to be only in the early stages. Further closing of anchor stores and possibly entire malls only exasperates the problems. Fixed cost leverage on retail businesses magnifies what we see also. Additionally, and this is still a big unknown, but a proposed border tariff could increase prices quite a bit for struggling stores. On the bullish side, industries in decline can create better environments for the survivors. Additionally, costs on future lease renewals are probably going down. I'm still long several in the space including: DG, DLTR, DKS, and HIBB, but sold out of the more fashion oriented stores of KORS, EXPR, and FRAN. Of those that that I hold, I'm probably weakest on HIBB Hibbett, and almost liquidated it, but I'm thinking the sporting goods/athletic apparel space is going through contraction now, and DKS and HIBB should probably be in better position once other companies fail/close. The dollar stores are in price war with WalMart, as well as seeing their core customer under increased budget pressure, but both seem confident their business model is up to the challenge, although it's clear they're more pressure than this time last year.