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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (18989)	4/9/2017 5:23:23 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

If you can count to 5 - prepare for parabolic! Bob

To: John Pitera who wrote (18989)

4/10/2017 1:05:29 AM

From: John Pitera

3 Recommendations

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Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421

To: robert b furman who wrote (25766)	4/10/2017 12:42:47 AM
From: John P	of 25769

Hi Bob, I believe we start earnings off with the big banks...... what guidance will they give? This is holy week with Passover on Tuesday and market closed on Friday.... one aspect of the banks is that the funding costs continue to head north........(that means profit margin compression)...... the 10 year can not compete with the rise in the short end look at 3 month Libor. we have picked up 90 basis points over the past 2 years.... and the TNX is at 2.37.... the best thing we can say about the 10 year yield is that the move down into the 2..20's was a false break and yields are heading back toward 2.60%.... if that is not the case and we head lower the yield curve is going to get flatter and flatter.... There is like a 3% chance that the Yield curve can invert and the stock market go up..... so presumably we are near a floor in long end of the bond market. A war would cause a run to safety and push the 10 year yield lower. as a matter of fact we just hit the yo dad sell the 10 year note futures cluster of a .382 retracement of the move from the July 6th 2016 top in price / low in yield at 1.336 and the 12/15/16 high in yield at 2.62%. which clusters perfectly with the 1.382% Fib price projection from the 1 impulse fractal down off of the 7/6/16 top and we hit the .618 Fibonacci Fan line from the entire move down from 7/6/16 to 12/15/16.... So short those notes and long bonds. with the caveat that something that causes a 15% decline in stocks and or a war / exogenous event will take you out of the stop that should be set @ 125 16/32 on the futures. a look from the yield side of the prism the BKS is an interesting looking chart.. next 15% could be either direction...... 66/35 % that it's down.... here is a 2 year XLF chart that is interesting do not know if the link is going to work stockcharts.com Energy earnings are going to be much much better.... but again guidance...... watch the weakness in the EUR..... there is starting to be worry of Le Penne pulling a Brexit / Trump. that is the biggest story that is under the radar... EUR/JPY the key risk on risk off metric has come back to it's 200 dma.... is this is the time for be long the EUR/JPY.... if it keeps going down ........ then the geopolitical...... and the global banking and risk stuff that is tough to see comes and looks to be feed.... Deutsche Bank already very weak .... back at it's 200 dma.... Keep that bad boy from going down to much more... and why is it going down???? Message 30658642 *The market has held up super well to bad news which is the hallmark of a bull market.* Back in the 1995 -2000 holiday weeks were just about always bullish so there is plenty of bullish data points. the SMH what is going on with the volume..... lots of buying last year when we were below the 200 dma and at the lows..... the next 20%....... I'll fade you for a beer that it's south.... with the SMH...... from a risk reward perspective..... time shall tell again it's been 10 months since the SMH checked back to it's 150 dma.... only 1 time since the inception of the index that we have gone over a year without a check back to the 150 dma.. I love your bullishness and belief in capitalism and all that is good with the world. My best, John