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To: Lost1 who wrote (6756)	1/6/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: david james	Respond to of 95453

Blood in the streets.... Its interesting trying to pick bottoms. I suspect that even if your pretty good at it, its pretty easy to miss by 20% or so. The bottom will NOT be marked by a period where all the bears start to come around to thinking that its a good time to buy with the analysts agreeing that the outlook is improving. Its usually a period when even the bulls start to get fed up. For those that weren't trying to pick stocks near the bottom of the semiconductor sector in the fall of 1996, it may be worth looking at the sentiment in the fall of 1996 (near the bottom for that sector) when the general feeling seemed to be that it would be several months before we saw any improvement - and many suggested that stocks could fall another 50%. Here's the AMAT thread, near the bottom. Message 305320 Oil could go lower, but the Saudis are unlikely to let it go much lower. The planned Iraqi oil sells count for only 1% of world oil production. And last I heard, it should be 30 degrees colder on the east coast next week relative to this week - which seems to be a factor for some people. Of course, there are the great fundamentals of the group, but that seems to be irrelevant right now. David