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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregory Rasp who wrote (14209)	1/6/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gregory...the point of the post was to inform thread readers that...yet another FAB is cutting back their planned spending. The numbers were not the focal point. When you add up all the cutback....they add up to a significant amount and will impact AMAT's revenues and earnings. So far most of the semi cap spending news has been of cutbacks....the only increase has been from an Analyst about INTC....we still need confirmation from INTC. We know DRAM and FLASH and other commodity FABs are cutting back...that's about 50% of the cap sales. We are now depending on logic chips to make up for their spending cutbacks.....On the 13th we will find out if INTC is indeed planning to spend more or less. I think at the current stock price....folks are expecting the logic chip industry will be strong and makeup for the commodity chips. LSI and ALTR have already warned in the logic area.....INTC will be the key if they have anything negative to say...then I think we will visit the low 20's. If indeed they will spend $5.4 billion....then we may have seen the bottom. Today's drop in LRCX is probably due to hints by the company to analysts that they will not make the quarter...we saw one downgrade today....I think we will see a one or two more before the earnings are released. I'm waiting for AMAT to admit that they have had pushouts and that the estimates that Morgan made will be revised down...that will be the time to load up the truck. dave dave