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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (4350)	1/7/1998 6:51:00 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Investor Business Daily's index of industry groups seems to show that the Semi Equipment group has bottomed out. The last week of 1997 it was ranked #183 of 197 and was #193 of 197 the previous week. Quite an amazing change from #3 of 197 just 3 months ago. Let's all remember that when a group starts hitting the top of this list, it's time to think about selling. It also indicates that when a group is totally out of favor on this list, it is time to buy! This indicator was also on the floor during the summer of 96 which was the previous buying opportunity.

To: space cadet who wrote (4350)	1/7/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Space cadet, I do not short any stock (contrary to some threads opinions). I just move into cash and write covered calls, sometime deep in the money, on core positions. I play some DBC raids but at this point, I am once more at Max cash.

To: space cadet who wrote (4350)	1/7/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<<I don't think we will see the kind of valuations on the semi-equipment suppliers that we saw this summer anytime this century.>> I think you're a little pessimistic. If you look at the history of semiconductor equip. issues, there is a cycle defining a long-term upward trend as semiconductor sales increase and equipment cost as a percentage of semiconductor sales increases. That is, a long-term trend towards a larger number of more expensive products. Bottom-to-top has historically been in the 12-18 month range, for whatever that's worth. Everybody and his brother seems to accept a ramp-up to 300mm in mid-1999, meaning the orders should come en masse sometime late this year. (Also, the litho problem is eventually going to get straightened out to some degree, although admittedly the major money may not really start pouring into this for more than two years -- still, there will be considerable spending on DUV in the next couple of years.). So the btb's have to come roaring back and with a lot more money on the line. When they do, and the earnings estimates start jumping, the price multiples are going to head north. I just can't see this failing to occur later than 18 months from now unless there's some general economic disaster, so my wild guess is that we'll see the industry as a whole not simply exceeding the highs of this fall, but about 30-50% in excess, before the end of 1999. IMHO