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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rob S. who wrote (5583)1/7/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11555
 
To be contrarian and optimistic, let's assume that this is a last ditch attempt by Lehman to get a chance at buying at good prices.

I have to admit, this was one of the shortest January Rallys that I've ever seen! Maybe too many people were expecting it, therefore it couldn't happen. For me, the best part is that there's plenty of pessimism around to keep speculation at bay for some time.

I've been watching the 13 week Treasury rate rise for several weeks as the LT bond rate fell. It's not an inverted yield curve yet, but it sure is flat! A short term credit crunch with LT rates falling will invert the curve and then the worry warts will be out in force.

It's been so long since we had a low risk market for investing that I've almost forgotten what one looks like! By my view, the last good low risk market started in Sept-Oct. of 1990. That's a long time ago!
(see graph at execpc.com ) I'd be happy to have the market continue upwards, but if it's time for a cleansing, well let's get busy and get it over with!!

In my opinion, IDTI has set the stage for what should be a few good years of business. It's ability to produce quantities of sophisticated chips in conjunction to their more "commodity" type products should give a good base for the future.

Best regards, Tom



To: Rob S. who wrote (5583)1/7/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: flickerful  Respond to of 11555
 
semi-news:

Semiconductor Business news - daily news for semiconductor industry
managers

Headlines from Monday, Jan. 5, 1998

Siemens, Motorola to announce 300-mm pilot line in Germany

DRESDEN, Germany -- The long-rumored, joint-venture 300-mm fab
between Siemens AG and Motorola Inc. here will finally be announced
next Monday, Jan. 12.

The venture will start out as pilot line, developing next-generation
processes and tools for 12-inch diameter silicon wafers, according to
sources at the two companies in Germany and the United States.

Final details for government financial assistance in Germany were worked
out at year's end, clearing the way for Siemens and Motorola to launch
construction of the 300-mm fab, the first for both chip makers.

Intel expected to spend $5.4 billion on chip gear in 1998

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- Intel Corp. is expected to increase its
spending on semiconductor capital equipment by 20% to $5.40 billion in
1998 compared to $4.50 billion in 1997, said analyst Bill McClean,
president of IC Insights Inc., during a forecast presentation at an executive
conference here today.

About 200 top executives attending the Industry Strategy Symposium
gasped when McClean disclosed his projection for Intel capital spending in
1998. At $4.5 billion, Intel's capital spending was about 20% of its sales in
1997, according to McClean, who added that the microprocessor giant's
budget was about what it should be for company its size.

In 1997, the industry's second largest capital spender was South Korea's
LG Semicon, said McClean, who placed the company's outlays at $2.0
billion compared to $2.3 billion in 1996. The $2.0 billion figure
represented 100% of LG Semicon's IC sales, McClean added.

"Another surprise was Siemens, which was ranked No. 3 in 1997,"
McClean noted. He estimated that the German chip maker spent $1.74
billion on capital equipment in 1997 compared to $1.33 billion in 1996.
Much of the 1997 spending was on new DRAM capacity, he said.

In 1998, McClean expects Siemens to cut back its spending with its
budget now set at $1.3 billion.

TI economist worries about Japan pulling down U.S. and Europe

By J. Robert Lineback

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- While South Korea's financial crisis has
grabbed headlines in recent weeks, chip makers and their capital
equipment suppliers should pay close attention to events in Japan, which
have the potential of triggering recessions in the United States and Europe,
warned the chief economist of Texas Instruments Inc. here today during an
executive conference.

By far, the biggest risk to semiconductor growth forecasts in 1998 is that
Japan could pull the United States and Europe into recessions, said Vladi
Catto, TI's vice president and chief economist, during a presentation
before the Industry Strategy Symposium hosted by the Semiconductor
Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. That risk
could be averted if the Japanese government acts decisively to simulate its
ailing economy with tax cuts and other moves aimed at ending country's
persistent recession, Catto added.

Catto cautioned that a potential trade war could erupt between Japan and
other regions--especially the United States and Europe--if the value of the
yen slips to 150- 180 per $1. A weaker yen would make Japanese
products much cheaper in the U.S. and European markets, undermining
local suppliers.

The TI economist predicted there was a 25% risk factor that the U.S.
economy could be negatively impacted by Japan's problems. Overall,
Japan's gross domestic product will grow by only 0.9% in 1998 after
increasing an anemic 0.4% in 1997, according to Catto, who would not
release his 1998 semiconductor forecast during the SEMI meeting because
TI was in a "quiet period" prior to releasing its 1997 financial results later
this month.

Watkins-Johnson to buy Samsung's Milpitas microwave fab

Comdisco acquires ISI assets in refurbished equipment

Asian currency crisis will hit LCD equipment market

Fairchild plans analog push after acquiring Raytheon unit

Intel, NEC, Motorola, TI, Toshiba top Dataquest '97 ranking

China drops high tariffs on semiconductor equipment

ElectronicsAlert! (Analysis of stories in EET & EBN)

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