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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Milkman who wrote (252)	1/7/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3299

AFCI investors, A much lesser quality company than AFCI, but one in the same business as AFCI, called Teledata blew up today. It only preannounced a minor miss in revenues but guided estimates down for next year. Get this, the company pre-announced $22.5mm rather than the $24mm estimate and the Smith Barney analyst took his price target on TLDCF shares from $50 to $13. Yes $13. It seems TLDCF is seeing tremendous weakness in Asia, has no visibility on its previously booming business in Brazil/South America and its order from Deutsche Telekom has been delayed. So lets see... other than Asia, South America and Europe they are doing fine. Too bad they don't have any business in the US where LU, AFCI and DSC dominate. It is possible that TLDCF management might have mis-executed and pointed blame on a convenient target but TLDCF does have support for its claim. They say their business in Indonesia has disappeard as the Indonesian currency dropped 40% in the month of December and another 30% since January 1st. TLDCF was known in the investment community as a little AFCI. TLDCF's and AFCI's products were both designed as cost-efficient solutions for regions with sparse, rural populations ("low line-count"). This was because the big companies didn't spend much money for this niche market. The obvious places for such products are emerging markets like China where there are hundreds and hundreds of millions of people that do not have phone lines. The bulls on the stock say even in a bad economy, a phone is a basic infrastructure item whose growth will not be hampered (i.e. not a discretionary expense). This is tremendously BAD news for all international-reliant technology companies. Regarding an entry point into AFCI, I think it should be put off until we know more. It is too risky. Even if the quarter is fine, Q1 will not be a big quarter based on what I am hearing. I like this company a lot but unless they sign up another US RBOC over the near term, I do not see a sustainable move up in the stock in Q1. Good luck.

To: Milkman who wrote (252)	1/8/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

<..I think you are right with the buying opportunity on AFCI..> Clam Clam's comments seemed to explain some of the concerns (I'm going to get and read the SollySB Teledata report tomorrow) with AFCI, but it seems prudent to be cautious at this point. <..and many other stocks in the market...> You've likely seen some of my other stock interests, and you might also check out AASI and TIII. <..Aware is one of the xDSL's that I have not looked at or gotten very comfortable with...> As you know, I am currently cautious on ALL pure ADSL plays, and I would definitely be cautious on AWRE. They will likely announce their splitterless tech tomorrow. And their DWMT may become associated with HFC, and someone might eventually want to buy their IP/engineering. Even Noel's upgrade (to "trading" buy) cautions that it'll probably be a year before the general ADSL party even starts. <..I know some people on other threads have bashed them because they were non compliant with their DMT product....> I think, for good or bad, the RBOCs (and others like MSFT,INTC and CPQ) want a market standard, and it may well (eventually) be DMT. DWMT isn't exactly DMT, and unless they can find a non-violating instantiation of Amati's patented tone-swapping algorithms in time, they won't be compliant. To the extent that ADI has licenced tone-swapping, and uses AWRE for their further IP capabilities, the CHIP seller is compliant. Telecom is DEFINITELY an exciting field to be in (and benefit from) at this time. Regards- Steve