To: Road Walker who wrote (44312 ) 1/7/1998 10:52:00 PM From: Tunica Albuginea Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
John Fowler, the Intel/Compaq dilemma IMHO will eventually be resolved in Intel's favor. -Pfeiffer bet on the sub$1000PC with AMD cpu's and gambled he didn't need Intel.He undereatimated/did not foresee the Intel/ Dell/HP etc competitition to come so soon and over-relied on the Compaq name recognition.Now Intel certainly is pis.ed-off.He knows he can't win with AMD/Cyrix alone; the longer it goes the worse it will get. -I suspect that Pfeiffer is an intelligent man, possibly pragmatic, and will soon recognize this.He'll announce that he'll dump AMD/Cyric and go up to Old Reliable, < gg>. All is well again. Andy Grove is likely an even more intelligent, pragmatic AND forgiving man: "Ok Echhard, we'll do business again, but don't screw up again or else.., gg( my threat, GG). Good bye AMD/Cyrix. On with business as usual, Intel. I jumped from high to low INTCW share prices, constantly repositioning myseslf in this recent quicksand trap, prices, all the way from $70 down to present $50 in Q4 !!, somehow holding body, soul and ..walett, intact.I have faith that Intel will deliver. I'll continue to hold because in regards to current Market situation I think that -Q4 eps will still be OK, by and large, or at lest better than they've been estimated,for selective companies of which Intel is one. Companies who fail will be chastised individually ( Atmel today ). -US trade with Asia is ONLY 10% !!;a slow down will be just enough to provide a gentle slowing to this economic tornado equivalent to a .25% interest rate increase by the Fed. -Deflationary ? tendencies and Asia imports will restrain wages,enough to allow the economy to continue to chug gently along. -Money is pouring in, into Mutuals as well as from scared overseas investors seeking safe haven;looking for a Jan effect. =Japan is too rich to fail; it is just that Japanese citizens will remain poor since they can't use their giant savings reserves in the Bank of Japan and Post Office vaults.And Bank of Japan is unlikely to print more money to get them out of the poor house. -S.Korea will survive with a little help( and some arm twisting) from their friends IMF, Multinational Banks;thry are too critical to global Bnking security to be allowed to fail and thus will eventually be bailed out. -Big loaner Banks will get a hit in their pocket ( as in yesterday's Merril Lynch's downgrade of several);but they made out big last 2 years and can afford the temporary diet.Also they will make out even better in the next 2 years as they extort massive interest rate penalties from hapless Asian debtors/Banks/companies, AND, start buying them at firesale prices. -In the end USA will remain the biggest winner and continue to lead. Unless, we screw it up again like in the 70s economic inflationary,redistributionist debacle, gg. I don't think so however: those memories are still burning.... TA