Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4360)	1/8/1998 1:25:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Jay - <<I will do an extensive chip company earnings review for the thread once most of the companys have reported. This is what equipment investors must follow, NOT the earnings of the equipment companys.>> I agree with you, it is just that I disagree on whether it will be true across the board (as opposed to just Intel - which is suffering from competition for the first time in years - and memory makers). It is somewhat disconcerting to agree with you on so much, and yet not agree on the end result (for those just tuning in - I think things will be rough for 6 months as the SEA uncertainty causes people to delay cap ex, but then, ... .). I look forward to the review. I, in turn, am in the process of doing an inventory analysis for companies that supply chips to computers and telecom equipment (VLSI, LSI, S3, TI, ...). Clark

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4360)	1/8/1998 1:57:00 AM
From: Aaron Zuckerman	Respond to of 10921

Jay, Do you think certain companies such as Cymi and Pria can continue to do well during this down cycle to 1X revenue that you're anticipating? Cymi, because they have a near monopoly on the excimer laser market which due to feature shrinks may well stay strong even in the down cycle that you're anticipating. Pria, because of their focus on automation products which can be installed both for fab upgrades as well as for new fabs and which also may have strong demand because of the industry trend towards automation. Or will the stock prices of the few companies that may continue to report good earnings during this down cycle such as the above be dragged down with rest of the group? Or do you belive that the earnings of all the equip makers will suffer more or less equally? Regards, AZ

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4360)	1/8/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I'll be very interested in your report and thanks in advance for the work. I'm not a "bull". If you'll look back over the Cymer thread, you'll see I got some heat for a post that started "Sell!" and an earlier post warning the thread that it was time to get defensive. Thank heaven that even though some people called me "stupid" I didn't get the "you're just a short trying to spread fear" bs. There's nothing that aggravates me more than people 1) making personal attacks on people who disagree with them, and 2) people who drive off negative opinion. Not wanting to hear the negatives on an issue is the dumbest thing an investor can do, and the hallmark of an emotional investor who's going to lose his shirt. So enough ranting, sorry. Regarding your post, you should realize that the semiconductor industry no longer publishes a book-to-bill, but the semi equipment industry does. The semiconductor industry does still publish a monthly sales figure. I also agree in part and disagree in part about equipment makers' earnings being driven by semiconductor co's net earnings. I can't time the cycles that closely, but chip production volume is as important as earnings. They need the earnings to afford the equipment, but the demand comes from gross sales levels. Maybe sales would satisfy us both. The long-term (3-year) growth cycle is going to continue up. Part of the slowing right now is artificial, as the Koreans (and to a lesser degree the Japanese and other Asians) can't afford to purchase equipment they need. Eventually someone else with a better-run business will step up to take up the slack -- look at Taiwan SC in the DRAM arena, for instance. Do not doubt that global chip (and all IC, which impacts a lot of companies in the semi equipment industry) demand is growing and will continue to grow. The rate of growth may slow, but in the long run, this isn't going to affect semi equipment fabs at the current valuations.