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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (14260)	1/7/1998 10:36:00 PM
From: akidron	Respond to of 70976

MMMMMMMMM... I understand that people are looking at internet startups for a trip to microsoft glory, but perhaps they're wrong. Just perhaps this round of glory is going to the people who make the digital age possible. My reasoning goes like this... Yahho Excite Hot Bot blah... they're just means to an end and as for Pointcast its just a elaborate screen saver. The real beneficeries of the digital age are content providers because in the end they will collect the ad revenues and create the stars. The other beneficeries are those that create the machines that make the enabling commodity of the age (chips) more and more cheaply. There are few examples in the history of capitalism of technological progress being retarded by depression. In fact it is the other way round, in depressions the strong invest in capital eqipment that reduces the cost of their products and distances them from the competition. This SEA event is IMO the event that AMAt needed to confirm its domination of the equip industry and pick up the niche producers it needs to complete its array of offering, at a reduced price (look at MTSN at 8!!!). Further I believe that INTC will keep its capex in place and that demand from european and tiwanese fabs will compensate for Korean shortfall. Additionally I think that one of the prime benificeries of the Rubin bailout of South Korea is AMAT, because Rubin will insist that the loans go to honor large orders placed with American firms. If you have doubt just look at the strategic history of forgien aid and how it is rationalised - the lender invariably is or becomes the primary supplier. My point is that AMAT will likely emerge more quickly than anybody believes from behind this cloud and will be stronger for it. I truly see it as the next GE. Other plays (which I play) include TWX and Walter Disney.... cozzz content is king.....

To: davesd who wrote (14260)	1/8/1998 9:26:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Some internet stocks are in favor because it is an unknown frontier...by that I mean that the potential is huge if you let your imagination go wild dave, Imagination is a great thing, but it in no way translates into eps, the underlying buttress for any stock, even the internet plays. IMHO, the next MSFT will be MSFT. When MSFT entered their sector, there was no competition for them. The same certainly cannot be said now. The argument of "the next MSFT" surely has a lot to do with the insane prices we see in the net plays, but IMO they are ungrounded fantasies. We should see these net plays fall back to earth once the realization sets in that the net is the ultimate discount store, and profits will be difficult to come by on this new medium. I recently bought a camera(the Canon Elph) for $269 on the net. In any store I go to, the cheapest price is $300. They're going to have to sell a he** of a lot of cameras to make real money. Even the "established" net plays like AOL really have not made any $$, most of it has been through creative bookkeeping. BTW, I love the net, just not as an investment at this point. Maybe after YHOO falls to $5 I'll step up to the plate. It's PSR is 58!!! It's market cap is 3X that of Lam Research and Yahoo has only $49M in sales vs. Lam's ~$1B. Something is out of whack here. And IMO the problem is only exacerbated when you have "expert" analysts like those at ML actually recommending people buy this stock. If they were doctors, they'd be sued for malpractice! Regards, Brian